Daily Papers

LLMs are highly sensitive to prompt phrasing, yet standard benchmarks typically report performance using a single prompt, raising concerns about the reliability of such evaluations. In this work, we argue for a stochastic method of moments evaluation over the space of meaning-preserving prompt perturbations. We introduce a formal definition of reliable evaluation that accounts for prompt sensitivity, and suggest ReliableEval - a method for estimating the number of prompt resamplings needed to obtain meaningful results. Using our framework, we stochastically evaluate five frontier LLMs and find that even top-performing models like GPT-4o and Claude-3.7-Sonnet exhibit substantial prompt sensitivity. Our approach is model-, task-, and metric-agnostic, offering a recipe for meaningful and robust LLM evaluation.

Current evaluations of sentence embedding models typically rely on static test beds such as the Massive Text Embedding Benchmark (MTEB). While invaluable, repeated tuning on a fixed suite can inflate reported performance and obscure real-world robustness. We introduce the Paraphrasing Text Embedding Benchmark (PTEB), a dynamic protocol that stochastically generates meaning-preserving paraphrases at evaluation time and aggregates results across multiple runs. Using a cost-efficient LLM-based method grounded in semantic textual similarity gold ratings, we show that LLMs generate token-diverse but semantically preserving, paraphrases. Across 7 MTEB tasks, we validate our hypothesis that the performance of sentence encoders is sensitive to changes in token space even when semantics remain fixed. We also observe that smaller models are not disproportionately affected relative to larger ones. Our results are statistically robust over multiple runs and we extended our experiments to 3 multilingual datasets covering 10 languages. More generally, we aim to propose a new evaluation paradigm in NLP that relies less on static, pre-defined benchmarks but shifts towards dynamic, stochastic evaluation leveraging eval-time compute.

As LLMs are increasingly deployed within agentic systems, their capabilities depend not only on the model weights but also on the harness: the prompts, tools, control flow, memory, and orchestration code surrounding them. This makes automated harness optimization -- the iterative and evaluation-guided improvement of a harness by an AI system -- both an important route to improving AI systems and a demanding capability for AI systems themselves. Yet the community lacks a common protocol for measuring how well frontier LLMs perform at this task. We introduce HarnessOpt-Bench, a benchmark for end-to-end harness optimization under expensive and stochastic evaluation. An optimizer, an LLM paired with a coding harness, receives a target agent's seed harness, graded evaluation feedback, and a fixed target-evaluation budget. It edits the harness and nominates a final candidate, which is scored by its normalized gain over the seed on a held-out test partition that remains inaccessible throughout search. A trusted execution environment enforces the evaluation boundary, meters target-agent resource use, and preserves candidate versions for audit. We evaluate 5 frontier LLMs as optimizers both under a shared coding harness and under their native harnesses across 4 downstream tasks, over 111 scored runs. Experiment results show that optimizer models separate more than the coding harnesses they act through, native harnesses are not consistently superior, and gains vary substantially across tasks and seed regimes. These results establish harness optimization as a measurable and discriminative capability with large space for improvement.

Despite the popularity of Shapley Values in explaining neural text classification models, computing them is prohibitive for large pretrained models due to a large number of model evaluations. In practice, Shapley Values are often estimated with a small number of stochastic model evaluations. However, we show that the estimated Shapley Values are sensitive to random seed choices -- the top-ranked features often have little overlap across different seeds, especially on examples with longer input texts. This can only be mitigated by aggregating thousands of model evaluations, which on the other hand, induces substantial computational overheads. To mitigate the trade-off between stability and efficiency, we develop an amortized model that directly predicts each input feature's Shapley Value without additional model evaluations. It is trained on a set of examples whose Shapley Values are estimated from a large number of model evaluations to ensure stability. Experimental results on two text classification datasets demonstrate that our amortized model estimates Shapley Values accurately with up to 60 times speedup compared to traditional methods. Furthermore, the estimated values are stable as the inference is deterministic. We release our code at https://github.com/yangalan123/Amortized-Interpretability.

In this paper, we study a class of composite optimization problems whose objective function is given by the summation of a general smooth and nonsmooth component, together with a relatively simple nonsmooth term. While restart strategies are commonly employed in first-order methods to achieve optimal convergence under strong convexity, they introduce structural complexity and practical overhead, making algorithm design and nesting cumbersome. To address this, we propose a restart-free stochastic gradient sliding algorithm that eliminates the need for explicit restart phases when the simple nonsmooth component is strongly convex. Through a novel and carefully designed parameter selection strategy, we prove that the proposed algorithm achieves an ε-solution with only O(log(1ε)) gradient evaluations for the smooth component and O(1ε) stochastic subgradient evaluations for the nonsmooth component, matching the optimal complexity of existing multi-phase (restart-based) methods. Moreover, for the case where the nonsmooth component is structured, allowing the overall problem to be reformulated as a bilinear saddle-point problem, we develop a restart-free accelerated stochastic gradient sliding algorithm. We show that the resulting method requires only O(log(1ε)) gradient computations for the smooth component while preserving an overall iteration complexity of O(1{sqrtε}) for solving the corresponding saddle-point problems. Our work thus provides simpler, restart-f

We endow Large Language Models (LLMs) with fine-grained self-evaluation to refine multi-step reasoning inference. We propose an effective prompting approach that integrates self-evaluation guidance through stochastic beam search. Our approach explores the reasoning search space using a well-calibrated automatic criterion. This enables an efficient search to produce higher-quality final predictions. With the self-evaluation guided stochastic beam search, we also balance the quality-diversity trade-off in the generation of reasoning chains. This allows our approach to adapt well with majority voting and surpass the corresponding Codex-backboned baselines by 6.34%, 9.56%, and 5.46% on the GSM8K, AQuA, and StrategyQA benchmarks, respectively, in few-shot accuracy. Analysis of our decompositional reasoning finds it pinpoints logic failures and leads to higher consistency and robustness. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/YuxiXie/SelfEval-Guided-Decoding.

We study fixed-confidence best-action identification (BAI) in stochastic minimax trees. This problem is increasingly relevant in modern AI planning, where deep minimax search and Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) with language model long rollouts face a fundamental tradeoff: heuristic evaluations are cheap but biased, while accurate rollouts are reliable but prohibitively expensive. We propose 2FFS, a two-fidelity tree-search algorithm that brings multi-fidelity flat bandit ideas into trees. The algorithm combines minimax-style fast expansion with MCTS-style stochastic sampling, adaptively deciding when to exploit cheap biased evaluations and when to invoke expensive accurate evaluations for local certification. We prove fixed-confidence correctness, establish finite stopping for exact identification, and give a polynomial-depth cost upper bound for general-depth trees. Across numerical stochastic-tree experiments, 2FFS uses substantially fewer samples and computational operations comparing to existing BAI-MCTS baseline.

AI pentesting agents are increasingly credible as offensive security systems, but current benchmarks still provide limited guidance on which will perform best in real-world targets. Existing evaluation protocols assess and optimize for predefined goals such as capture-the-flag, remote code execution, exploit reproduction, or trajectory similarity, in simplified or narrow settings. These tools are valuable for measuring bounded capabilities, yet they do not adequately capture the complexity, open-ended exploration, and strategic decision-making required in realistic pentesting. In this paper, we present a practical evaluation protocol that shifts assessment from task completion to validated vulnerability discovery, allowing evaluation in sufficiently complex targets spanning multiple attack surfaces and vulnerability classes. The protocol combines structured ground-truth with LLM-based semantic matching to identify vulnerabilities, bipartite resolution to score findings under realistic ambiguity, continuous ground-truth maintenance, repeated and cumulative evaluation of stochastic agents, efficiency metrics, and reduced-suite selection for sustainable experimentation. This protocol extends the state of the art by enabling a more realistic, operationally informative comparison of AI pentesting agents. To enable reproducibility, we also release expert-annotated ground truth and code for the proposed evaluation protocol: https://github.com/ethiack/ethibench.

In Agentic AI, Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in the orchestration layer to coordinate multiple agents and to interact with external services, retrieval components, and shared memory. In this setting, failures are not limited to incorrect final outputs. They also arise from long-horizon interaction, stochastic decisions, and external side effects (such as API calls, database writes, and message sends). Common failures include non-termination, role drift, propagation of unsupported claims, and attacks via untrusted context or external channels. This paper presents an assurance framework for such Agentic AI systems. Executions are instrumented as Message-Action Traces (MAT) with explicit step and trace contracts. Contracts provide machine-checkable verdicts, localize the first violating step, and support deterministic replay. The framework includes stress testing, formulated as a budgeted counterexample search over bounded perturbations. It also supports structured fault injection at service, retrieval, and memory boundaries to assess containment under realistic operational faults and degraded conditions. Finally, governance is treated as a runtime component, enforcing per-agent capability limits and action mediation (allow, rewrite, block) at the language-to-action boundary. To support comparative evaluations across stochastic seeds, models, and orchestration configurations, the paper defines trace-based metrics for task success, termination reliability, contract compliance, factuality indicators, containment rate, and governance outcome distributions. More broadly, the framework is intended as a common abstraction to support testing and evaluation of multi-agent LLM systems, and to facilitate reproducible comparison across orchestration designs and configurations.

Language Model Programs, i.e. sophisticated pipelines of modular language model (LM) calls, are increasingly advancing NLP tasks, but they require crafting prompts that are jointly effective for all modules. We study prompt optimization for LM programs, i.e. how to update these prompts to maximize a downstream metric without access to module-level labels or gradients. To make this tractable, we factorize our problem into optimizing the free-form instructions and few-shot demonstrations of every module and introduce several strategies to craft task-grounded instructions and navigate credit assignment across modules. Our strategies include (i) program- and data-aware techniques for proposing effective instructions, (ii) a stochastic mini-batch evaluation function for learning a surrogate model of our objective, and (iii) a meta-optimization procedure in which we refine how LMs construct proposals over time. Using these insights we develop MIPRO, a novel algorithm for optimizing LM programs. MIPRO outperforms baseline optimizers on five of seven diverse multi-stage LM programs using a best-in-class open-source model (Llama-3-8B), by as high as 13% accuracy. We have released our new optimizers and benchmark in DSPy at http://dspy.ai

This expository paper introduces a simplified approach to image-based quality inspection in manufacturing using OpenAI's CLIP (Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining) model adapted for few-shot learning. While CLIP has demonstrated impressive capabilities in general computer vision tasks, its direct application to manufacturing inspection presents challenges due to the domain gap between its training data and industrial applications. We evaluate CLIP's effectiveness through five case studies: metallic pan surface inspection, 3D printing extrusion profile analysis, stochastic textured surface evaluation, automotive assembly inspection, and microstructure image classification. Our results show that CLIP can achieve high classification accuracy with relatively small learning sets (50-100 examples per class) for single-component and texture-based applications. However, the performance degrades with complex multi-component scenes. We provide a practical implementation framework that enables quality engineers to quickly assess CLIP's suitability for their specific applications before pursuing more complex solutions. This work establishes CLIP-based few-shot learning as an effective baseline approach that balances implementation simplicity with robust performance, demonstrated in several manufacturing quality control applications.

When a high-resolution (HR) image is degraded into a low-resolution (LR) image, the image loses some of the existing information. Consequently, multiple HR images can correspond to the LR image. Most of the existing methods do not consider the uncertainty caused by the stochastic attribute, which can only be probabilistically inferred. Therefore, the predicted HR images are often blurry because the network tries to reflect all possibilities in a single output image. To overcome this limitation, this paper proposes a novel face super-resolution (SR) scheme to take into the uncertainty by stochastic modeling. Specifically, the information in LR images is separately encoded into deterministic and stochastic attributes. Furthermore, an Input Conditional Attribute Predictor is proposed and separately trained to predict the partially alive stochastic attributes from only the LR images. Extensive evaluation shows that the proposed method successfully reduces the uncertainty in the learning process and outperforms the existing state-of-the-art approaches.

Serving transformer language models with high throughput requires caching Key-Values (KVs) to avoid redundant computation during autoregressive generation. The memory footprint of KV caching is significant and heavily impacts serving costs. This work proposes to lessen these memory requirements. While recent work has largely addressed KV cache reduction via compression and eviction along the temporal axis, we argue that the depth dimension offers an orthogonal and robust avenue for optimization. Although prior research suggests that a full cache for every layer is redundant, implementing cross-layer cache sharing remains a practical challenge; existing methods typically suffer from reduced throughput or increased time-to-first-token. In this paper, we demonstrate that dropping a layer's cache offers efficient optimization without information loss. We propose a simple training approach: random cross-layer attention. During training, layers randomly choose to attend either to their own KV states or those of a preceding layer. This stochastic process adapts the model to be robust to various depth-wise cache sharing strategies, ensuring flexibility for unknown hardware constraints at deployment time. Our evaluations show that applying this scheme during pre-training or fine-tuning enables depth-wise cache sharing for various model families. Furthermore, for larger models in data-constrained settings, this approach is suggestive of a regularization-like effect, frequently preserving or improving performance while significantly reducing the cache's memory footprint.

We study the optimisation problem associated with Gaussian process regression using squared loss. The most common approach to this problem is to apply an exact solver, such as conjugate gradient descent, either directly, or to a reduced-order version of the problem. Recently, driven by successes in deep learning, stochastic gradient descent has gained traction as an alternative. In this paper, we show that when done rightx2014by which we mean using specific insights from the optimisation and kernel communitiesx2014this approach is highly effective. We thus introduce a particular stochastic dual gradient descent algorithm, that may be implemented with a few lines of code using any deep learning framework. We explain our design decisions by illustrating their advantage against alternatives with ablation studies and show that the new method is highly competitive. Our evaluations on standard regression benchmarks and a Bayesian optimisation task set our approach apart from preconditioned conjugate gradients, variational Gaussian process approximations, and a previous version of stochastic gradient descent for Gaussian processes. On a molecular binding affinity prediction task, our method places Gaussian process regression on par in terms of performance with state-of-the-art graph neural networks.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become an effective approach for advancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) through the strategic integration of external search engines. However, current RL-based search agents often rely on a process of stochastic exploration guided by carefully crafted outcome rewards, leading to inefficient reasoning trajectories and unstable training. To address these issues, we propose a novel framework, Hierarchical Experience (HiExp), to enhance the performance and training stability of search agents. Specifically, we extract empirical knowledge through contrastive analysis and a multi-level clustering mechanism, transforming raw reasoning trajectories into hierarchical experience knowledge. By leveraging experience-aligned training, we effectively regularize stochastic exploration, evolving it into a strategic and experience-driven search process. Extensive evaluations on multiple complex agentic search and mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that our approach not only achieves substantial performance gains but also exhibits strong cross-task and cross-algorithm generalization.

Inspired by the strong ties between vision and language, the two intimate human sensing and communication modalities, our paper aims to explore the generation of 3D human full-body motions from texts, as well as its reciprocal task, shorthanded for text2motion and motion2text, respectively. To tackle the existing challenges, especially to enable the generation of multiple distinct motions from the same text, and to avoid the undesirable production of trivial motionless pose sequences, we propose the use of motion token, a discrete and compact motion representation. This provides one level playing ground when considering both motions and text signals, as the motion and text tokens, respectively. Moreover, our motion2text module is integrated into the inverse alignment process of our text2motion training pipeline, where a significant deviation of synthesized text from the input text would be penalized by a large training loss; empirically this is shown to effectively improve performance. Finally, the mappings in-between the two modalities of motions and texts are facilitated by adapting the neural model for machine translation (NMT) to our context. This autoregressive modeling of the distribution over discrete motion tokens further enables non-deterministic production of pose sequences, of variable lengths, from an input text. Our approach is flexible, could be used for both text2motion and motion2text tasks. Empirical evaluations on two benchmark datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our approach on both tasks over a variety of state-of-the-art methods. Project page: https://ericguo5513.github.io/TM2T/

Deterministic inference is a comforting ideal in classical software: the same program on the same input should always produce the same output. As large language models move into real-world deployment, this ideal has been imported wholesale into inference stacks. Recent work from the Thinking Machines Lab has presented a detailed analysis of nondeterminism in LLM inference, showing how batch-invariant kernels and deterministic attention can enforce bitwise-identical outputs, positioning deterministic inference as a prerequisite for reproducibility and enterprise reliability. In this paper, we take the opposite stance. We argue that, for LLMs, deterministic inference kills. It kills the ability to model uncertainty, suppresses emergent abilities, collapses reasoning into a single brittle path, and weakens safety alignment by hiding tail risks. LLMs implement conditional distributions over outputs, not fixed functions. Collapsing these distributions to a single canonical completion may appear reassuring, but it systematically conceals properties central to artificial cognition. We instead advocate Stochastic CHAOS, treating distributional variability as a signal to be measured and controlled. Empirically, we show that deterministic inference is systematically misleading. Single-sample deterministic evaluation underestimates both capability and fragility, masking failure probability under paraphrases and noise. Phase-like transitions associated with emergent abilities disappear under greedy decoding. Multi-path reasoning degrades when forced onto deterministic backbones, reducing accuracy and diagnostic insight. Finally, deterministic evaluation underestimates safety risk by hiding rare but dangerous behaviors that appear only under multi-sample evaluation.

Optimizing neural networks with loss that contain high-dimensional and high-order differential operators is expensive to evaluate with back-propagation due to O(d^{k}) scaling of the derivative tensor size and the O(2^{k-1}L) scaling in the computation graph, where d is the dimension of the domain, L is the number of ops in the forward computation graph, and k is the derivative order. In previous works, the polynomial scaling in d was addressed by amortizing the computation over the optimization process via randomization. Separately, the exponential scaling in k for univariate functions (d=1) was addressed with high-order auto-differentiation (AD). In this work, we show how to efficiently perform arbitrary contraction of the derivative tensor of arbitrary order for multivariate functions, by properly constructing the input tangents to univariate high-order AD, which can be used to efficiently randomize any differential operator. When applied to Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), our method provides >1000times speed-up and >30times memory reduction over randomization with first-order AD, and we can now solve 1-million-dimensional PDEs in 8 minutes on a single NVIDIA A100 GPU. This work opens the possibility of using high-order differential operators in large-scale problems.

The natural language generation (NLG) component of a spoken dialogue system (SDS) usually needs a substantial amount of handcrafting or a well-labeled dataset to be trained on. These limitations add significantly to development costs and make cross-domain, multi-lingual dialogue systems intractable. Moreover, human languages are context-aware. The most natural response should be directly learned from data rather than depending on predefined syntaxes or rules. This paper presents a statistical language generator based on a joint recurrent and convolutional neural network structure which can be trained on dialogue act-utterance pairs without any semantic alignments or predefined grammar trees. Objective metrics suggest that this new model outperforms previous methods under the same experimental conditions. Results of an evaluation by human judges indicate that it produces not only high quality but linguistically varied utterances which are preferred compared to n-gram and rule-based systems.

Forecasting urban phenomena such as housing prices and public health indicators requires the effective integration of various geospatial data. Current methods primarily utilize task-specific models, while recent foundation models for spatial representations often support only limited modalities and lack multimodal fusion capabilities. To overcome these challenges, we present UrbanFusion, a Geo-Foundation Model (GeoFM) that features Stochastic Multimodal Fusion (SMF). The framework employs modality-specific encoders to process different types of inputs, including street view imagery, remote sensing data, cartographic maps, and points of interest (POIs) data. These multimodal inputs are integrated via a Transformer-based fusion module that learns unified representations. An extensive evaluation across 41 tasks in 56 cities worldwide demonstrates UrbanFusion's strong generalization and predictive performance compared to state-of-the-art GeoAI models. Specifically, it 1) outperforms prior foundation models on location-encoding, 2) allows multimodal input during inference, and 3) generalizes well to regions unseen during training. UrbanFusion can flexibly utilize any subset of available modalities for a given location during both pretraining and inference, enabling broad applicability across diverse data availability scenarios. All source code is available at https://github.com/DominikM198/UrbanFusion.

Multimodal agents offer a promising path to automating complex document-intensive workflows. Yet, a critical question remains: do these agents demonstrate genuine strategic reasoning, or merely stochastic trial-and-error search? To address this, we introduce MADQA, a benchmark of 2,250 human-authored questions grounded in 800 heterogeneous PDF documents. Guided by Classical Test Theory, we design it to maximize discriminative power across varying levels of agentic abilities. To evaluate agentic behaviour, we introduce a novel evaluation protocol measuring the accuracy-effort trade-off. Using this framework, we show that while the best agents can match human searchers in raw accuracy, they succeed on largely different questions and rely on brute-force search to compensate for weak strategic planning. They fail to close the nearly 20% gap to oracle performance, persisting in unproductive loops. We release the dataset and evaluation harness to help facilitate the transition from brute-force retrieval to calibrated, efficient reasoning.

Explanation fidelity, which measures how accurately an explanation reflects a model's true reasoning, remains critically underexplored in recommender systems. We introduce SPINRec (Stochastic Path Integration for Neural Recommender Explanations), a model-agnostic approach that adapts path-integration techniques to the sparse and implicit nature of recommendation data. To overcome the limitations of prior methods, SPINRec employs stochastic baseline sampling: instead of integrating from a fixed or unrealistic baseline, it samples multiple plausible user profiles from the empirical data distribution and selects the most faithful attribution path. This design captures the influence of both observed and unobserved interactions, yielding more stable and personalized explanations. We conduct the most comprehensive fidelity evaluation to date across three models (MF, VAE, NCF), three datasets (ML1M, Yahoo! Music, Pinterest), and a suite of counterfactual metrics, including AUC-based perturbation curves and fixed-length diagnostics. SPINRec consistently outperforms all baselines, establishing a new benchmark for faithful explainability in recommendation. Code and evaluation tools are publicly available at https://github.com/DeltaLabTLV/SPINRec.

As intelligent agents become more generally-capable, i.e. able to master a wide variety of tasks, the complexity and cost of properly evaluating them rises significantly. Tasks that assess specific capabilities of the agents can be correlated and stochastic, requiring many samples for accurate comparisons, leading to added costs. In this paper, we propose a formal definition and a conceptual framework for active evaluation of agents across multiple tasks, which assesses the performance of ranking algorithms as a function of number of evaluation data samples. Rather than curating, filtering, or compressing existing data sets as a preprocessing step, we propose an online framing: on every iteration, the ranking algorithm chooses the task and agents to sample scores from. Then, evaluation algorithms report a ranking of agents on each iteration and their performance is assessed with respect to the ground truth ranking over time. Several baselines are compared under different experimental contexts, with synthetic generated data and simulated online access to real evaluation data from Atari game-playing agents. We find that the classical Elo rating system -- while it suffers from well-known failure modes, in theory -- is a consistently reliable choice for efficient reduction of ranking error in practice. A recently-proposed method, Soft Condorcet Optimization, shows comparable performance to Elo on synthetic data and significantly outperforms Elo on real Atari agent evaluation. When task variation from the ground truth is high, selecting tasks based on proportional representation leads to higher rate of ranking error reduction.

Designing an optimum portfolio for allocating suitable weights to its constituent assets so that the return and risk associated with the portfolio are optimized is a computationally hard problem. The seminal work of Markowitz that attempted to solve the problem by estimating the future returns of the stocks is found to perform sub-optimally on real-world stock market data. This is because the estimation task becomes extremely challenging due to the stochastic and volatile nature of stock prices. This work illustrates three approaches to portfolio design minimizing the risk, optimizing the risk, and assigning equal weights to the stocks of a portfolio. Thirteen critical sectors listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India are first chosen. Three portfolios are designed following the above approaches choosing the top ten stocks from each sector based on their free-float market capitalization. The portfolios are designed using the historical prices of the stocks from Jan 1, 2017, to Dec 31, 2022. The portfolios are evaluated on the stock price data from Jan 1, 2022, to Dec 31, 2022. The performances of the portfolios are compared, and the portfolio yielding the higher return for each sector is identified.

In this paper, we consider the problem of sleeping bandits with stochastic action sets and adversarial rewards. In this setting, in contrast to most work in bandits, the actions may not be available at all times. For instance, some products might be out of stock in item recommendation. The best existing efficient (i.e., polynomial-time) algorithms for this problem only guarantee an O(T^{2/3}) upper-bound on the regret. Yet, inefficient algorithms based on EXP4 can achieve O(T). In this paper, we provide a new computationally efficient algorithm inspired by EXP3 satisfying a regret of order O(T) when the availabilities of each action i in cA are independent. We then study the most general version of the problem where at each round available sets are generated from some unknown arbitrary distribution (i.e., without the independence assumption) and propose an efficient algorithm with O(2^K T) regret guarantee. Our theoretical results are corroborated with experimental evaluations.

The stock market is a fundamental component of financial systems, reflecting economic health, providing investment opportunities, and influencing global dynamics. Accurate stock market predictions can lead to significant gains and promote better investment decisions. However, predicting stock market trends is challenging due to their non-linear and stochastic nature. This study investigates the efficacy of advanced deep learning models for short-term trend forecasting using daily and hourly closing prices from the S&P 500 index and the Brazilian ETF EWZ. The models explored include Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN), Neural Basis Expansion Analysis for Time Series Forecasting (N-BEATS), Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFT), Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series Forecasting (N-HiTS), and Time-series Dense Encoder (TiDE). Furthermore, we introduce the Extended Long Short-Term Memory for Time Series (xLSTM-TS) model, an xLSTM adaptation optimised for time series prediction. Wavelet denoising techniques were applied to smooth the signal and reduce minor fluctuations, providing cleaner data as input for all approaches. Denoising significantly improved performance in predicting stock price direction. Among the models tested, xLSTM-TS consistently outperformed others. For example, it achieved a test accuracy of 72.82% and an F1 score of 73.16% on the EWZ daily dataset. By leveraging advanced deep learning models and effective data preprocessing techniques, this research provides valuable insights into the application of machine learning for market movement forecasting, highlighting both the potential and the challenges involved.

An important emerging application of coding agents is agent optimization: the iterative improvement of a target agent through edit-execute-evaluate cycles. Despite its relevance, the community lacks a systematic understanding of coding agent performance on this task. Agent optimization differs fundamentally from conventional software engineering: the target agent interleaves deterministic code with stochastic LLM completions, requiring structured capture of both intermediate reasoning and downstream execution outcomes. To address these challenges, we introduce VERO (Versioning, Rewards, and Observations), which provides (1) a reproducible evaluation harness with versioned agent snapshots, budget-controlled evaluation, and structured execution traces, and (2) a benchmark suite of target agents and tasks with reference evaluation procedures. Using VERO, we conduct an empirical study comparing optimizer configurations across tasks and analyzing which modifications reliably improve target agent performance. We release VERO to support research on agent optimization as a core capability for coding agents.

We study the problem of global maximization of a function f given a finite number of evaluations perturbed by noise. We consider a very weak assumption on the function, namely that it is locally smooth (in some precise sense) with respect to some semi-metric, around one of its global maxima. Compared to previous works on bandits in general spaces (Kleinberg et al., 2008; Bubeck et al., 2011a) our algorithm does not require the knowledge of this semi-metric. Our algorithm, StoSOO, follows an optimistic strategy to iteratively construct upper confidence bounds over the hierarchical partitions of the function domain to decide which point to sample next. A finite-time analysis of StoSOO shows that it performs almost as well as the best specifically-tuned algorithms even though the local smoothness of the function is not known.

We study black-box optimization of Lipschitz functions under noisy evaluations. Existing adaptive discretization methods implicitly avoid suboptimal regions but do not provide explicit certificates of optimality or measurable progress guarantees. We introduce Certificate-Guided Pruning (CGP), which maintains an explicit active set A_t of potentially optimal points via confidence-adjusted Lipschitz envelopes. Any point outside A_t is certifiably suboptimal with high probability, and under a margin condition with near-optimality dimension α, we prove Vol(A_t) shrinks at a controlled rate yielding sample complexity tildeO(varepsilon^{-(2+α)}). We develop three extensions: CGP-Adaptive learns L online with O(log T) overhead; CGP-TR scales to d > 50 via trust regions with local certificates; and CGP-Hybrid switches to GP refinement when local smoothness is detected. Experiments on 12 benchmarks (d in [2, 100]) show CGP variants match or exceed strong baselines while providing principled stopping criteria via certificate volume.

World modeling requires forecasting uncertain futures while preserving information useful for downstream perception. Existing visual world models often struggle to satisfy both goals: VAE-based stochastic models operate in low-dimensional reconstruction latents, which can limit perception performance, while deterministic predictors using strong pretrained features collapse multimodal futures into a single blurry mean. In this work, we propose FlowWM, a stochastic world model that performs flow matching directly within pretrained feature space (e.g., DINOv3). This is challenging because pretrained features are substantially high-dimensional, making standard diffusion recipes suboptimal. To address this, we investigate the design choices needed for feature-space flow matching and introduce a differentiable one-step projection mechanism that enables efficient training with temporal consistency and task-driven objectives. We evaluate FlowWM on two benchmarks: a synthetic benchmark for systematic evaluation of accuracy and diversity, and a real-world benchmark FuturePerception. FlowWM improves perception performance, mode coverage, and horizon robustness, validating our proposed design for stochastic world modeling in high-dimensional feature spaces.

The rapid advancement of visual generation models has outpaced traditional evaluation approaches, necessitating the adoption of Vision-Language Models as surrogate judges. In this work, we systematically investigate the reliability of the prevailing absolute pointwise scoring standard, across a wide spectrum of visual generation tasks. Our analysis reveals that this paradigm is limited due to stochastic inconsistency and poor alignment with human perception. To resolve these limitations, we introduce GenArena, a unified evaluation framework that leverages a pairwise comparison paradigm to ensure stable and human-aligned evaluation. Crucially, our experiments uncover a transformative finding that simply adopting this pairwise protocol enables off-the-shelf open-source models to outperform top-tier proprietary models. Notably, our method boosts evaluation accuracy by over 20% and achieves a Spearman correlation of 0.86 with the authoritative LMArena leaderboard, drastically surpassing the 0.36 correlation of pointwise methods. Based on GenArena, we benchmark state-of-the-art visual generation models across diverse tasks, providing the community with a rigorous and automated evaluation standard for visual generation.

Reinforcement learning (RL) techniques have achieved impressive performance on simulated benchmarks such as Atari100k, yet recent advances remain largely confined to simulation and show limited transfer to real-world domains. A central obstacle is environmental stochasticity, as real systems involve noisy observations, unpredictable dynamics, and non-stationary conditions that undermine the stability of current methods. Existing benchmarks rarely capture these uncertainties and favor simplified settings where algorithms can be tuned to succeed. The absence of a well-defined taxonomy of stochasticity further complicates evaluation, as robustness to one type of stochastic perturbation, such as sticky actions, does not guarantee robustness to other forms of uncertainty. To address this critical gap, we introduce STORI (STOchastic-ataRI), a benchmark that systematically incorporates diverse stochastic effects and enables rigorous evaluation of RL techniques under different forms of uncertainty. We propose a comprehensive five-type taxonomy of environmental stochasticity and demonstrate systematic vulnerabilities in state-of-the-art model-based RL algorithms through targeted evaluation of DreamerV3 and STORM. Our findings reveal that world models dramatically underestimate environmental variance, struggle with action corruption, and exhibit unreliable dynamics under partial observability. We release the code and benchmark publicly at https://github.com/ARY2260/stori, providing a unified framework for developing more robust RL systems.

Optimizing complex systems, ranging from LLM prompts to multi-turn agents, traditionally requires labor-intensive manual iteration. We formalize this challenge as a stochastic generative optimization problem where a generative language model acts as the optimizer, guided by numerical rewards and text feedback to discover the best system. We introduce Prioritized Optimization with Local Contextual Aggregation (POLCA), a scalable framework designed to handle stochasticity in optimization -- such as noisy feedback, sampling minibatches, and stochastic system behaviors -- while effectively managing the unconstrained expansion of solution space. POLCA maintains a priority queue to manage the exploration-exploitation tradeoff, systematically tracking candidate solutions and their evaluation histories. To enhance efficiency, we integrate an varepsilon-Net mechanism to maintain parameter diversity and an LLM Summarizer to perform meta-learning across historical trials. We theoretically prove that POLCA converges to near-optimal candidate solutions under stochasticity. We evaluate our framework on diverse benchmarks, including τ-bench, HotpotQA (agent optimization), VeriBench (code translation) and KernelBench (CUDA kernel generation). Experimental results demonstrate that POLCA achieves robust, sample and time-efficient performance, consistently outperforming state-of-the-art algorithms in both deterministic and stochastic problems. The codebase for this work is publicly available at https://github.com/rlx-lab/POLCA.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as customer-facing agents, yet evaluating their reliability remains challenging due to stochastic, multi-turn interactions. Current evaluation protocols rely on linear Monte Carlo rollouts of complete agent-user conversations to estimate success. However, this approach is computationally inefficient, repeatedly regenerating identical early prefixes, and often fails to uncover deep failure modes that arise from rare user behaviors. We introduce DIVERT (Diversity-Induced Evaluation via Branching of Trajectories), an efficient, snapshot-based, coverage-guided user simulation framework for systematic exploration of agent-user interactions. DIVERT captures the full agent-environment state at critical decision points and resumes execution from these snapshots, enabling reuse of shared conversation prefixes and reducing redundant computation. From each junction, the framework branches using targeted, diversity-inducing user responses, allowing directed exploration of alternative interaction paths. By focusing evaluation on semantically diverse and underexplored trajectories, DIVERT improves both efficiency and coverage. Empirical results show that it discovers more failures per token compared to standard linear rollout protocols, while expanding the set of tasks on which failures are identified.

To generate evidence regarding the safety and efficacy of artificial intelligence (AI) enabled medical devices, AI models need to be evaluated on a diverse population of patient cases, some of which may not be readily available. We propose an evaluation approach for testing medical imaging AI models that relies on in silico imaging pipelines in which stochastic digital models of human anatomy (in object space) with and without pathology are imaged using a digital replica imaging acquisition system to generate realistic synthetic image datasets. Here, we release M-SYNTH, a dataset of cohorts with four breast fibroglandular density distributions imaged at different exposure levels using Monte Carlo x-ray simulations with the publicly available Virtual Imaging Clinical Trial for Regulatory Evaluation (VICTRE) toolkit. We utilize the synthetic dataset to analyze AI model performance and find that model performance decreases with increasing breast density and increases with higher mass density, as expected. As exposure levels decrease, AI model performance drops with the highest performance achieved at exposure levels lower than the nominal recommended dose for the breast type.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models empower them to follow freeform instructions, including imitating generic or specific demographic personas in conversations. We define generic personas to represent demographic groups, such as "an Asian person", whereas specific personas may take the form of specific popular Asian names like "Yumi". While the adoption of personas enriches user experiences by making dialogue systems more engaging and approachable, it also casts a shadow of potential risk by exacerbating social biases within model responses, thereby causing societal harm through interactions with users. In this paper, we systematically study "persona biases", which we define to be the sensitivity of dialogue models' harmful behaviors contingent upon the personas they adopt. We categorize persona biases into biases in harmful expression and harmful agreement, and establish a comprehensive evaluation framework to measure persona biases in five aspects: Offensiveness, Toxic Continuation, Regard, Stereotype Agreement, and Toxic Agreement. Additionally, we propose to investigate persona biases by experimenting with UNIVERSALPERSONA, a systematically constructed persona dataset encompassing various types of both generic and specific model personas. Through benchmarking on four different models -- including Blender, ChatGPT, Alpaca, and Vicuna -- our study uncovers significant persona biases in dialogue systems. Our findings also underscore the pressing need to revisit the use of personas in dialogue agents to ensure safe application.

Flow and diffusion models generate high-quality samples in many modalities; however, many network evaluations are required during inference due to numerical integration of an underlying differential equation. Flow maps alleviate this problem by learning the solution map of the differential equation directly, enabling few-step sampling. Yet, current methods are restricted to approximating the solution map of ODEs. These methods can be used to learn the transition kernel of an SDE, thereby obtaining a solution map that recovers the marginal distributions of the process (weak convergence) rather than the solution path (strong convergence). We propose Strong Stochastic Flow Maps (SSFMs) as a novel framework for learning the strong solution map of additive-noise SDEs, directly generalizing deterministic flow maps to the stochastic setting. Further, a polynomial approximation to Brownian motion is introduced and shown to converge pathwise. These results enable a simulation-free training objective for the solution map of diffusion models. We demonstrate that SSFMs outperform previous stochastic flow map methods on image generation and enable few-step sampling of molecular systems.

We propose a novel autoregressive modeling approach for speech synthesis, combining a variational autoencoder (VAE) with a multi-modal latent space and an autoregressive model that uses Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) as the conditional probability distribution. Unlike previous methods that rely on residual vector quantization, our model leverages continuous speech representations from the VAE's latent space, greatly simplifying the training and inference pipelines. We also introduce a stochastic monotonic alignment mechanism to enforce strict monotonic alignments. Our approach significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art autoregressive model VALL-E in both subjective and objective evaluations, achieving these results with only 10.3\% of VALL-E's parameters. This demonstrates the potential of continuous speech language models as a more efficient alternative to existing quantization-based speech language models. Sample audio can be found at https://tinyurl.com/gmm-lm-tts.

Very deep convolutional networks with hundreds of layers have led to significant reductions in error on competitive benchmarks. Although the unmatched expressiveness of the many layers can be highly desirable at test time, training very deep networks comes with its own set of challenges. The gradients can vanish, the forward flow often diminishes, and the training time can be painfully slow. To address these problems, we propose stochastic depth, a training procedure that enables the seemingly contradictory setup to train short networks and use deep networks at test time. We start with very deep networks but during training, for each mini-batch, randomly drop a subset of layers and bypass them with the identity function. This simple approach complements the recent success of residual networks. It reduces training time substantially and improves the test error significantly on almost all data sets that we used for evaluation. With stochastic depth we can increase the depth of residual networks even beyond 1200 layers and still yield meaningful improvements in test error (4.91% on CIFAR-10).

Robust routing under uncertainty is central to real-world logistics, yet most benchmarks assume static, idealized settings. We present SVRPBench, the first open benchmark to capture high-fidelity stochastic dynamics in vehicle routing at urban scale. Spanning more than 500 instances with up to 1000 customers, it simulates realistic delivery conditions: time-dependent congestion, log-normal delays, probabilistic accidents, and empirically grounded time windows for residential and commercial clients. Our pipeline generates diverse, constraint-rich scenarios, including multi-depot and multi-vehicle setups. Benchmarking reveals that state-of-the-art RL solvers like POMO and AM degrade by over 20% under distributional shift, while classical and metaheuristic methods remain robust. To enable reproducible research, we release the dataset and evaluation suite. SVRPBench challenges the community to design solvers that generalize beyond synthetic assumptions and adapt to real-world uncertainty.

Text-to-Image (T2I) generation is primarily driven by Diffusion Models (DM) which rely on random Gaussian noise. Thus, like playing the slots at a casino, a DM will produce different results given the same user-defined inputs. This imposes a gambler's burden: To perform multiple generation cycles to obtain a satisfactory result. However, even though DMs use stochastic sampling to seed generation, the distribution of generated content quality highly depends on the prompt and the generative ability of a DM with respect to it. To account for this, we propose Naïve PAINE for improving the generative quality of Diffusion Models by leveraging T2I preference benchmarks. We directly predict the numerical quality of an image from the initial noise and given prompt. Naïve PAINE then selects a handful of quality noises and forwards them to the DM for generation. Further, Naïve PAINE provides feedback on the DM generative quality given the prompt and is lightweight enough to seamlessly fit into existing DM pipelines. Experimental results demonstrate that Naïve PAINE outperforms existing approaches on several prompt corpus benchmarks.

Large language models (LLMs) now mediate many web-based mental-health, crisis, and other emotionally sensitive services, yet their psychosocial safety in these settings remains poorly understood and weakly evaluated. We present DialogGuard, a multi-agent framework for assessing psychosocial risks in LLM-generated responses along five high-severity dimensions: privacy violations, discriminatory behaviour, mental manipulation, psychological harm, and insulting behaviour. DialogGuard can be applied to diverse generative models through four LLM-as-a-judge pipelines, including single-agent scoring, dual-agent correction, multi-agent debate, and stochastic majority voting, grounded in a shared three-level rubric usable by both human annotators and LLM judges. Using PKU-SafeRLHF with human safety annotations, we show that multi-agent mechanisms detect psychosocial risks more accurately than non-LLM baselines and single-agent judging; dual-agent correction and majority voting provide the best trade-off between accuracy, alignment with human ratings, and robustness, while debate attains higher recall but over-flags borderline cases. We release Dialog-Guard as open-source software with a web interface that provides per-dimension risk scores and explainable natural-language rationales. A formative study with 12 practitioners illustrates how it supports prompt design, auditing, and supervision of web-facing applications for vulnerable users.

Stochastic partial observability poses a major challenge for decentralized coordination in multi-agent reinforcement learning but is largely neglected in state-of-the-art research due to a strong focus on state-based centralized training for decentralized execution (CTDE) and benchmarks that lack sufficient stochasticity like StarCraft Multi-Agent Challenge (SMAC). In this paper, we propose Attention-based Embeddings of Recurrence In multi-Agent Learning (AERIAL) to approximate value functions under stochastic partial observability. AERIAL replaces the true state with a learned representation of multi-agent recurrence, considering more accurate information about decentralized agent decisions than state-based CTDE. We then introduce MessySMAC, a modified version of SMAC with stochastic observations and higher variance in initial states, to provide a more general and configurable benchmark regarding stochastic partial observability. We evaluate AERIAL in Dec-Tiger as well as in a variety of SMAC and MessySMAC maps, and compare the results with state-based CTDE. Furthermore, we evaluate the robustness of AERIAL and state-based CTDE against various stochasticity configurations in MessySMAC.

Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPMs) have achieved considerable success in generation tasks. As sampling from DPMs is equivalent to solving diffusion SDE or ODE which is time-consuming, numerous fast sampling methods built upon improved differential equation solvers are proposed. The majority of such techniques consider solving the diffusion ODE due to its superior efficiency. However, stochastic sampling could offer additional advantages in generating diverse and high-quality data. In this work, we engage in a comprehensive analysis of stochastic sampling from two aspects: variance-controlled diffusion SDE and linear multi-step SDE solver. Based on our analysis, we propose SA-Solver, which is an improved efficient stochastic Adams method for solving diffusion SDE to generate data with high quality. Our experiments show that SA-Solver achieves: 1) improved or comparable performance compared with the existing state-of-the-art sampling methods for few-step sampling; 2) SOTA FID scores on substantial benchmark datasets under a suitable number of function evaluations (NFEs).

Generating high-quality time series data has emerged as a critical research topic due to its broad utility in supporting downstream time series mining tasks. A major challenge lies in modeling the intrinsic stochasticity of temporal dynamics, as real-world sequences often exhibit random fluctuations and localized variations. While diffusion models have achieved remarkable success, their generation process is computationally inefficient, often requiring hundreds to thousands of expensive function evaluations per sample. Flow matching has emerged as a more efficient paradigm, yet its conventional ordinary differential equation (ODE)-based formulation fails to explicitly capture stochasticity, thereby limiting the fidelity of generated sequences. By contrast, stochastic differential equation (SDE) are naturally suited for modeling randomness and uncertainty. Motivated by these insights, we propose TimeFlow, a novel SDE-based flow matching framework that integrates a encoder-only architecture. Specifically, we design a component-wise decomposed velocity field to capture the multi-faceted structure of time series and augment the vanilla flow-matching optimization with an additional stochastic term to enhance representational expressiveness. TimeFlow is flexible and general, supporting both unconditional and conditional generation tasks within a unified framework. Extensive experiments across diverse datasets demonstrate that our model consistently outperforms strong baselines in generation quality, diversity, and efficiency.

Diffusion models (DMs) represent state-of-the-art generative models for continuous inputs. DMs work by constructing a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) in the input space (ie, position space), and using a neural network to reverse it. In this work, we introduce a novel generative modeling framework grounded in phase space dynamics, where a phase space is defined as {an augmented space encompassing both position and velocity.} Leveraging insights from Stochastic Optimal Control, we construct a path measure in the phase space that enables efficient sampling. {In contrast to DMs, our framework demonstrates the capability to generate realistic data points at an early stage of dynamics propagation.} This early prediction sets the stage for efficient data generation by leveraging additional velocity information along the trajectory. On standard image generation benchmarks, our model yields favorable performance over baselines in the regime of small Number of Function Evaluations (NFEs). Furthermore, our approach rivals the performance of diffusion models equipped with efficient sampling techniques, underscoring its potential as a new tool generative modeling.

Large language model (LLM) agents integrated with external tools are vulnerable to indirect prompt injections embedded in environmental states. However, existing studies largely rely on manually implemented or reused environments, stochastic LLM-based tool simulation, and predefined injection locations, limiting scalable security research across broader domains. To bridge this gap, we propose **ToolHazard**, a scalable adversarial environment synthesis framework that reduces human engineering and supports expansion with additional seed domains and compute. Through an Environment Simulator, an Attacker Agent, and a User Simulator, ToolHazard synthesizes executable stateful environments, discovers viable injection points and generates environment-specific payloads, and constructs state-grounded long-horizon tasks. Based on ToolHazard, we build **ToolHazard-Bench** for stress-testing agents under complex workflows and diverse environmental attacks. Experiments reveal substantial agent vulnerabilities and show that injection timing and placement affect attack effectiveness. Moreover, ToolHazard-generated alignment data improves security on both ToolHazard-Bench and AgentDojo while preserving benign task utility.

Despite rapid advancements in video generation models, aligning their outputs with complex user intent remains challenging. Existing test-time optimization methods are typically either computationally expensive or require white-box access to model internals. To address this, we present VQQA (Video Quality Question Answering), a unified, multi-agent framework generalizable across diverse input modalities and video generation tasks. By dynamically generating visual questions and using the resulting Vision-Language Model (VLM) critiques as semantic gradients, VQQA replaces traditional, passive evaluation metrics with human-interpretable, actionable feedback. This enables a highly efficient, closed-loop prompt optimization process via a black-box natural language interface. Extensive experiments demonstrate that VQQA effectively isolates and resolves visual artifacts, substantially improving generation quality in just a few refinement steps. Applicable to both text-to-video (T2V) and image-to-video (I2V) tasks, our method achieves absolute improvements of +11.57% on T2V-CompBench and +8.43% on VBench2 over vanilla generation, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art stochastic search and prompt optimization techniques.

Symbolic world modeling requires inferring and representing an environment's transitional dynamics as an executable program. Prior work has focused on largely deterministic environments with abundant interaction data, simple mechanics, and human guidance. We address a more realistic and challenging setting, learning in a complex, stochastic environment where the agent has only "one life" to explore a hostile environment without human guidance. We introduce OneLife, a framework that models world dynamics through conditionally-activated programmatic laws within a probabilistic programming framework. Each law operates through a precondition-effect structure, activating in relevant world states. This creates a dynamic computation graph that routes inference and optimization only through relevant laws, avoiding scaling challenges when all laws contribute to predictions about a complex, hierarchical state, and enabling the learning of stochastic dynamics even with sparse rule activation. To evaluate our approach under these demanding constraints, we introduce a new evaluation protocol that measures (a) state ranking, the ability to distinguish plausible future states from implausible ones, and (b) state fidelity, the ability to generate future states that closely resemble reality. We develop and evaluate our framework on Crafter-OO, our reimplementation of the Crafter environment that exposes a structured, object-oriented symbolic state and a pure transition function that operates on that state alone. OneLife can successfully learn key environment dynamics from minimal, unguided interaction, outperforming a strong baseline on 16 out of 23 scenarios tested. We also test OneLife's planning ability, with simulated rollouts successfully identifying superior strategies. Our work establishes a foundation for autonomously constructing programmatic world models of unknown, complex environments.

Multi-constraint instruction following requires verifying whether a response satisfies multiple individual requirements, yet LLM judges are often assessed only through overall-response judgments. We introduce MCJudgeBench, a benchmark for constraint-level judge evaluation in multi-constraint instruction following. Each instance includes an instruction, a candidate response, an explicit constraint list, per-constraint gold labels in {yes, partial, no}, and controlled response-side perturbations. The evaluation protocol further includes evaluation prompt variants to test judge stability. We evaluate proprietary and open-source LLM judges using both correctness and inconsistency metrics, distinguishing intrinsic inconsistency under stochastic decoding from procedural inconsistency under prompt and response perturbations. Our results show that judge reliability has multiple dimensions: strong overall performance does not guarantee equally reliable detection across label categories, especially for rarer partial and no cases. Judges with higher correctness do not always have lower inconsistency. Evaluation with reasoning improves correctness but does not uniformly improve stability. These findings motivate evaluating LLM judges at the constraint level to study these failure modes.

Generative models transform random noise into images; their inversion aims to transform images back to structured noise for recovery and editing. This paper addresses two key tasks: (i) inversion and (ii) editing of a real image using stochastic equivalents of rectified flow models (such as Flux). Although Diffusion Models (DMs) have recently dominated the field of generative modeling for images, their inversion presents faithfulness and editability challenges due to nonlinearities in drift and diffusion. Existing state-of-the-art DM inversion approaches rely on training of additional parameters or test-time optimization of latent variables; both are expensive in practice. Rectified Flows (RFs) offer a promising alternative to diffusion models, yet their inversion has been underexplored. We propose RF inversion using dynamic optimal control derived via a linear quadratic regulator. We prove that the resulting vector field is equivalent to a rectified stochastic differential equation. Additionally, we extend our framework to design a stochastic sampler for Flux. Our inversion method allows for state-of-the-art performance in zero-shot inversion and editing, outperforming prior works in stroke-to-image synthesis and semantic image editing, with large-scale human evaluations confirming user preference.

With LLMs shifting their role from statistical modeling of language to serving as general-purpose AI agents, how should LLM evaluations change? Arguably, a key ability of an AI agent is to flexibly combine, as needed, the basic skills it has learned. The capability to combine skills plays an important role in (human) pedagogy and also in a paper on emergence phenomena (Arora & Goyal, 2023). This work introduces Skill-Mix, a new evaluation to measure ability to combine skills. Using a list of N skills the evaluator repeatedly picks random subsets of k skills and asks the LLM to produce text combining that subset of skills. Since the number of subsets grows like N^k, for even modest k this evaluation will, with high probability, require the LLM to produce text significantly different from any text in the training set. The paper develops a methodology for (a) designing and administering such an evaluation, and (b) automatic grading (plus spot-checking by humans) of the results using GPT-4 as well as the open LLaMA-2 70B model. Administering a version of to popular chatbots gave results that, while generally in line with prior expectations, contained surprises. Sizeable differences exist among model capabilities that are not captured by their ranking on popular LLM leaderboards ("cramming for the leaderboard"). Furthermore, simple probability calculations indicate that GPT-4's reasonable performance on k=5 is suggestive of going beyond "stochastic parrot" behavior (Bender et al., 2021), i.e., it combines skills in ways that it had not seen during training. We sketch how the methodology can lead to a Skill-Mix based eco-system of open evaluations for AI capabilities of future models.

Food safety and quality are paramount concerns worldwide, especially concerning nutritional quality and its impact on human health. Ensuring the accuracy and efficiency of milk quality assessment is vital for maintaining the quality of dairy farm produce. Milk spectral data, Mid-infrared spectra (MIRS) of milk samples, are frequently employed for milk quality evaluations, encompassing various milk quality parameters. However, conventional milk quality analyses have overlooked the scaling nature, known as stochastic similarity in different scales, inherent in milk spectral data. Wavelet transforms are among the tools used in these analyses, although they are primarily used as data pre-processing techniques without fully realizing their potential in extracting valuable insights. The primary purpose of this study is to demonstrate the importance of accounting for scaling properties in assessing milk quality. A set of 12 descriptors is computed to characterize scaling properties in milk spectral data within the wavelet domain. These descriptors are then assessed for their effectiveness in milk quality assessments utilizing 18 different milk quality parameters. They notably demonstrated comparable performance to existing methods while utilizing fewer features when applied to an MIRS dataset. This innovative approach holds substantial promise for advancing the field of milk quality assessment, offering a means to achieve more accurate and efficient evaluations while shedding light on previously unexplored aspects of milk spectral data.

Collisions between cyclists and pedestrians at urban intersections remain a persistent source of injuries, yet few systems attempt real-time warnings to unequipped road users using commodity hardware. We present a prototype collision warning system that runs on a single edge device with a wide-angle fisheye camera, producing audible and visual alerts at 30\,fps. The system makes four contributions. First, we develop a calibration pipeline for ultra-wide fisheye lenses that overcomes corner-detection failure and optimizer divergence through perspective remapping and direct bundle adjustment. Second, we combine fisheye-aware object detection with a closed-form ground-plane projection via a precomputed lookup table. Third, we introduce a design-time conformance simulation with 24 scripted hazard scenarios, stochastic size-aware detection failures, and a latency sweep showing that a first-order kinematic predictor maintains the mean warning budget above the distracted-pedestrian reaction time across realistic camera latencies. Fourth, we formalize the decision layer as a separable, auditable testbench with explicit deployment gates, contestability mechanisms, and a residual risk register. Under conformance testing with fisheye localization error, the selected pipeline configuration achieves 93.3\% sensitivity and 92.3\% specificity, with a mean warning budget of 3.3\,s. The system design was informed by community-aided design workshops. Code and replication scripts are available at https://github.com/mkturkcan/bikeped.

While AI agents have shown remarkable performance at various tasks, they still struggle with complex multi-modal applications, structured generation and strategic planning. Improvements via standard fine-tuning is often impractical, as solving agentic tasks usually relies on black box API access without control over model parameters. Inference-time methods such as Best-of-N (BON) sampling offer a simple yet effective alternative to improve performance. However, BON lacks iterative feedback integration mechanism. Hence, we propose Iterative Agent Decoding (IAD) which combines iterative refinement with dynamic candidate evaluation and selection guided by a verifier. IAD differs in how feedback is designed and integrated, specifically optimized to extract maximal signal from reward scores. We conduct a detailed comparison of baselines across key metrics on Sketch2Code, Text2SQL, and Webshop where IAD consistently outperforms baselines, achieving 3--6% absolute gains on Sketch2Code and Text2SQL (with and without LLM judges) and 8--10% gains on Webshop across multiple metrics. To better understand the source of IAD's gains, we perform controlled experiments to disentangle the effect of adaptive feedback from stochastic sampling, and find that IAD's improvements are primarily driven by verifier-guided refinement, not merely sampling diversity. We also show that both IAD and BON exhibit inference-time scaling with increased compute when guided by an optimal verifier. Our analysis highlights the critical role of verifier quality in effective inference-time optimization and examines the impact of noisy and sparse rewards on scaling behavior. Together, these findings offer key insights into the trade-offs and principles of effective inference-time optimization.

We explore the feasibility and effectiveness of using LLM-driven autonomous systems for Assumed Breach penetration testing in enterprise networks. We introduce a novel prototype that, driven by Large Language Models (LLMs), can compromise accounts within a real-life Active Directory testbed. Our research provides a comprehensive evaluation of the prototype's capabilities, and highlights both strengths and limitations while executing attack. The evaluation uses a realistic simulation environment (Game of Active Directory, GOAD) to capture intricate interactions, stochastic outcomes, and timing dependencies that characterize live network scenarios. The study concludes that autonomous LLMs are able to conduct Assumed Breach simulations, potentially democratizing access to penetration testing for organizations facing budgetary constraints. The prototype's source code, traces, and analyzed logs are released as open-source to enhance collective cybersecurity and facilitate future research in LLM-driven cybersecurity automation.

In this work, we propose a novel adversarial defence mechanism for image classification - CARSO - blending the paradigms of adversarial training and adversarial purification in a synergistic robustness-enhancing way. The method builds upon an adversarially-trained classifier, and learns to map its internal representation associated with a potentially perturbed input onto a distribution of tentative clean reconstructions. Multiple samples from such distribution are classified by the same adversarially-trained model, and a carefully chosen aggregation of its outputs finally constitutes the robust prediction of interest. Experimental evaluation by a well-established benchmark of strong adaptive attacks, across different image datasets, shows that CARSO is able to defend itself against adaptive end-to-end white-box attacks devised for stochastic defences. Paying a modest clean accuracy toll, our method improves by a significant margin the state-of-the-art for Cifar-10, Cifar-100, and TinyImageNet-200 ell_infty robust classification accuracy against AutoAttack. Code, and instructions to obtain pre-trained models are available at: https://github.com/emaballarin/CARSO .

Forecasts of explosive AI progress hinge on AI agents automating AI research. But evidence on whether agents can carry out open-ended AI research is thin. Current evaluations either test agents on narrow, verifiable tasks, which excludes open-ended research, or submit AI-generated papers to blind peer review, which is overstretched, stochastic, and suffers from poor review quality. We introduce a third way to measure progress towards AI R\&D automation. An agent takes on the central, open-ended research question of a high-quality unpublished paper, and the paper's original authors grade its output. We call these shadow evaluations. We ran shadow evaluations on two unpublished NeurIPS 2026 submissions, giving frontier agents six days and thousands of dollars of compute. The agents completed all of the engineering without human help, yet could not make substantial progress towards answering the research questions. As a result, both papers were unambiguously rejected by the authors. We identify five recurring failure modes: poor judgment about the bar for publishable research, uncreative responses to shortcomings in the research design, ineffective backtracking from dead ends, poor resource awareness, and instruction drift. A robustness check with a second model and scaffold reproduced these failures. We release the expert reviews, survey responses, agent repositories, and logs. Our results provide early evidence that today's agents can do the engineering of AI research, but struggle with critical parts of the research lifecycle.

Earth observation applications increasingly rely on data from multiple sensors, including optical, radar, elevation, and land-cover. Relationships between modalities are fundamental for data integration but are inherently non-injective: identical conditioning information can correspond to multiple physically plausible observations, and should be parametrised as conditional distributions. Deterministic models, by contrast, collapse toward conditional means and fail to represent the uncertainty and variability required for tasks such as data completion and cross-sensor translation. We introduce COP-GEN, a multimodal latent diffusion transformer that models the joint distribution of heterogeneous EO modalities at their native spatial resolutions. By parameterising cross-modal mappings as conditional distributions, COP-GEN enables flexible any-to-any conditional generation, including zero-shot modality translation without task-specific retraining. Experiments show that COP-GEN generates diverse yet physically consistent realisations while maintaining strong peak fidelity across optical, radar, and elevation modalities. Qualitative and quantitative analyses demonstrate that the model captures meaningful cross-modal structure and adapts its output uncertainty as conditioning information increases. We release a stochastic benchmark built from multi-temporal Sentinel-2 observations that enables distribution-level comparison of generative EO models. On this benchmark, COP-GEN covers 90% of the real observation manifold and 63% of its per-band reflectance range, while the strongest competing method collapses to 2.8% and 18%, respectively. These results highlight the importance of stochastic generative modeling for EO and motivate evaluation protocols beyond single-reference, pointwise metrics. Website: https://miquel-espinosa.github.io/cop-gen

We study the problem of symbolic music generation (e.g., generating piano rolls), with a technical focus on non-differentiable rule guidance. Musical rules are often expressed in symbolic form on note characteristics, such as note density or chord progression, many of which are non-differentiable which pose a challenge when using them for guided diffusion. We propose Stochastic Control Guidance (SCG), a novel guidance method that only requires forward evaluation of rule functions that can work with pre-trained diffusion models in a plug-and-play way, thus achieving training-free guidance for non-differentiable rules for the first time. Additionally, we introduce a latent diffusion architecture for symbolic music generation with high time resolution, which can be composed with SCG in a plug-and-play fashion. Compared to standard strong baselines in symbolic music generation, this framework demonstrates marked advancements in music quality and rule-based controllability, outperforming current state-of-the-art generators in a variety of settings. For detailed demonstrations, code and model checkpoints, please visit our project website: https://scg-rule-guided-music.github.io/.

Full self-attention in large language models scales as O(N^2), which limits long-context document analysis to 65,536 tokens and requires costly GPU clusters. The Reduced Interaction Sampling (RIS) inference engine addresses this constraint as a model-agnostic architecture. Without modifying weights, RIS reduces self-attention complexity to O(N log N) using sparse stochastic geometry that fits within commodity memory limits. We validate RIS on Qwen2-1.5B-Instruct across two regimes. In controlled evaluations at 32,768 tokens (where native dense attention serves as the upper bound), RIS-Stochastic at 1% density and 70 ensemble seeds achieves 75.00% accuracy, outperforming the native dense baseline (71.88%), while RIS-Stochastic at 5% density and 10 seeds matches it (71.88%). This demonstrates that sparse attention acts as a regularizer: low density (1%) over multiple seeds filters out sequence-level noise, whereas higher density (5%) reintroduces distractor noise. Under the tightest budget, RIS-Structural reaches 68.75% accuracy at 1% density with just 10 seeds, recovering 75% of the contextual gap relative to the zero-context floor (59.38%). At 65,536 tokens, where dense attention triggers out-of-memory faults, RIS yields retrieval gains of up to 14.06 percentage points over the zero-context floor (51.56%), which is confirmed as marginally significant under McNemar's paired test (p = 0.078 < 0.10). All evaluations run on commodity, unaccelerated CPU servers (16-128 GB of RAM), demonstrating that long-context LLM inference is feasible on standard academic hardware without GPU acceleration.

Discrete flow matching generates text by iteratively transforming noise tokens into coherent language, but may require hundreds of forward passes. Distillation uses the multi-step trajectory to train a student to reproduce the process in a few steps. When the student underperforms, the usual explanation is insufficient capacity. We argue the opposite: the trajectory is the bottleneck, not the student. Each training trajectory is built through a chain of blind stochastic jumps with no evaluation of sequence quality; a single bad decision at an early midpoint propagates through subsequent steps, yet the student must imitate the result. Trajectory-Shaped Discrete Flow Matching (TS-DFM) replaces these blind jumps with guided navigation: a lightweight energy compass evaluates candidate continuations at each midpoint, selecting the most coherent. All shaping is training-only; inference cost is unchanged. On 170M-parameter language modeling, the shaped student at 8 steps achieves 32% lower perplexity than the 1,024-step teacher while being 128x faster, with gains consistent across source distributions and three evaluators of increasing scale. TS-DFM achieves the best perplexity of any discrete-generation baseline we compare against, including methods trained on 6x more data or using 5x larger models.

Recent advances in reinforcement learning (RL) have led to substantial improvements in the mathematical reasoning abilities of LLMs, as measured by standard benchmarks. Yet these gains often persist even when models are trained with flawed signals, such as random or inverted rewards. This raises a fundamental question: do such improvements reflect genuine reasoning, or are they merely artifacts of overfitting to benchmark-specific patterns? To answer this question, we adopt an evaluation-centric perspective and highlight two critical shortcomings in existing protocols. First, benchmark contamination arises because test problems are publicly available, thereby increasing the risk of data leakage. Second, evaluation fragility results from reliance on single-instance assessments, which are sensitive to stochastic outputs and fail to capture reasoning consistency. These limitations suggest the need for a new evaluation paradigm that can probe reasoning ability beyond memorization and one-off success. As response, we propose VAR-MATH, a symbolic evaluation framework that converts fixed numerical problems into parameterized templates and requires models to solve multiple instantiations of each. This design enforces consistency across structurally equivalent variants, mitigates contamination, and enhances robustness through bootstrapped metrics. We apply VAR-MATH to transform three popular benchmarks, AMC23, AIME24, and AIME25, into their symbolic counterparts, VAR-AMC23, VAR-AIME24, and VAR-AIME25. Experimental results show substantial performance drops for RL-trained models on these variabilized benchmarks, especially for smaller models, with average declines of 47.9\% on AMC23, 58.8\% on AIME24, and 72.9\% on AIME25. These findings indicate that some existing RL methods rely on superficial heuristics and fail to generalize beyond specific numerical forms.

Reward models (RM) play a critical role in aligning generations of large language models (LLM) to human expectations. However, prevailing RMs fail to capture the stochasticity within human preferences and cannot effectively evaluate the reliability of reward predictions. To address these issues, we propose Uncertain-aware RM (URM) and Uncertain-aware RM Ensemble (URME) to incorporate and manage uncertainty in reward modeling. URM can model the distribution of disentangled attributes within human preferences, while URME quantifies uncertainty through discrepancies in the ensemble, thereby identifying potential lack of knowledge during reward evaluation. Experiment results indicate that the proposed URM achieves state-of-the-art performance compared to models with the same size, demonstrating the effectiveness of modeling uncertainty within human preferences. Furthermore, empirical results show that through uncertainty quantification, URM and URME can identify unreliable predictions to improve the quality of reward evaluations.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in settings where reasoning, such as multi-step problem solving and chain-of-thought, is essential. Yet, current evaluation practices overwhelmingly report single-run accuracy while ignoring the intrinsic uncertainty that naturally arises from stochastic decoding. This omission creates a blind spot because practitioners cannot reliably assess whether a method's reported performance is stable, reproducible, or cost-consistent. We introduce ReasonBENCH, the first benchmark designed to quantify the underlying instability in LLM reasoning. ReasonBENCH provides (i) a modular evaluation library that standardizes reasoning frameworks, models, and tasks, (ii) a multi-run protocol that reports statistically reliable metrics for both quality and cost, and (iii) a public leaderboard to encourage variance-aware reporting. Across tasks from different domains, we find that the vast majority of reasoning strategies and models exhibit high instability. Notably, even strategies with similar average performance can display confidence intervals up to four times wider, and the top-performing methods often incur higher and less stable costs. Such instability compromises reproducibility across runs and, consequently, the reliability of reported performance. To better understand these dynamics, we further analyze the impact of prompts, model families, and scale on the trade-off between solve rate and stability. Our results highlight reproducibility as a critical dimension for reliable LLM reasoning and provide a foundation for future reasoning methods and uncertainty quantification techniques. ReasonBENCH is publicly available at https://github.com/au-clan/ReasonBench .

Process reward models enable fine-grained, step-level evaluation of LLMs, yet building them for agentic settings remains prohibitively difficult: long-horizon interactions, irreversible actions, and stochastic environment feedback make both human annotation and Monte Carlo estimation infeasible at scale. In this work, we show that reinforcement learning (RL) post-training already provides the ingredients for effective step-level scoring, eliminating the need for dedicated reward model training altogether. Concretely, we derive an implicit advantage under a general stochastic Markov decision process, which we term progress advantage -- log-probability ratio between the RL-trained policy and its reference policy exactly recovers the optimal advantage function. This formulation makes the resulting signal annotation-free, domain-agnostic, and available as a byproduct of the standard RL post-training pipeline. We validate the effectiveness of the progress advantage across three different applications: test-time scaling, uncertainty quantification, and failure attribution on five benchmarks and four model families. Across all settings, it consistently outperforms confidence-based baselines and, despite requiring no task-specific training, surpasses dedicated trained reward models. We complement these results with deeper analyses on characteristics of progress advantage, offering practical guidance for adoption in real-world agentic systems.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often generate responses with inherent biases, undermining their reliability in real-world applications. Existing evaluation methods often overlook biases in long-form responses and the intrinsic variability of LLM outputs. To address these challenges, we propose FiSCo(Fine-grained Semantic Computation), a novel statistical framework to evaluate group-level fairness in LLMs by detecting subtle semantic differences in long-form responses across demographic groups. Unlike prior work focusing on sentiment or token-level comparisons, FiSCo goes beyond surface-level analysis by operating at the claim level, leveraging entailment checks to assess the consistency of meaning across responses. We decompose model outputs into semantically distinct claims and apply statistical hypothesis testing to compare inter- and intra-group similarities, enabling robust detection of subtle biases. We formalize a new group counterfactual fairness definition and validate FiSCo on both synthetic and human-annotated datasets spanning gender, race, and age. Experiments show that FiSco more reliably identifies nuanced biases while reducing the impact of stochastic LLM variability, outperforming various evaluation metrics.

Irregular multivariate time series impose a trade-off for long-horizon forecasting: discrete methods can distort temporal structure via re-gridding, while continuous-time models often require sequential solvers prone to drift. To bridge this gap, we present Latent Laplace Diffusion (LLapDiff), a generative framework that models the target as a low-dimensional latent trajectory, enabling horizon-wide generation without step-by-step integration over physical time. We guide the reverse process utilizing a stable modal parameterization motivated by stochastic port-Hamiltonian dynamics, and parameterize its mean evolution in the Laplace domain via learnable complex-conjugate poles, enabling direct evaluation over irregular timestamps. We also link continuous dynamics to irregular observations through renewal-averaging analysis, which maps sampling gaps to effective event-domain poles and motivates a gap-aware history summarizer. Extensive experiments show that LLapDiff improves over baselines in long-horizon forecasting, and its continuous-time generative nature supports missing-value imputation by querying the same model at historical timestamps. Code is available at https://github.com/pixelhero98/LLapDiffusion.

We study the effect of mini-batching on the loss landscape of deep neural networks using spiked, field-dependent random matrix theory. We demonstrate that the magnitude of the extremal values of the batch Hessian are larger than those of the empirical Hessian. We also derive similar results for the Generalised Gauss-Newton matrix approximation of the Hessian. As a consequence of our theorems we derive an analytical expressions for the maximal learning rates as a function of batch size, informing practical training regimens for both stochastic gradient descent (linear scaling) and adaptive algorithms, such as Adam (square root scaling), for smooth, non-convex deep neural networks. Whilst the linear scaling for stochastic gradient descent has been derived under more restrictive conditions, which we generalise, the square root scaling rule for adaptive optimisers is, to our knowledge, completely novel. %For stochastic second-order methods and adaptive methods, we derive that the minimal damping coefficient is proportional to the ratio of the learning rate to batch size. We validate our claims on the VGG/WideResNet architectures on the CIFAR-100 and ImageNet datasets. Based on our investigations of the sub-sampled Hessian we develop a stochastic Lanczos quadrature based on the fly learning rate and momentum learner, which avoids the need for expensive multiple evaluations for these key hyper-parameters and shows good preliminary results on the Pre-Residual Architecure for CIFAR-100.

Denoising diffusion bridge models (DDBMs) are a powerful variant of diffusion models for interpolating between two arbitrary paired distributions given as endpoints. Despite their promising performance in tasks like image translation, DDBMs require a computationally intensive sampling process that involves the simulation of a (stochastic) differential equation through hundreds of network evaluations. In this work, we take the first step in fast sampling of DDBMs without extra training, motivated by the well-established recipes in diffusion models. We generalize DDBMs via a class of non-Markovian diffusion bridges defined on the discretized timesteps concerning sampling, which share the same marginal distributions and training objectives, give rise to generative processes ranging from stochastic to deterministic, and result in diffusion bridge implicit models (DBIMs). DBIMs are not only up to 25times faster than the vanilla sampler of DDBMs but also induce a novel, simple, and insightful form of ordinary differential equation (ODE) which inspires high-order numerical solvers. Moreover, DBIMs maintain the generation diversity in a distinguished way, by using a booting noise in the initial sampling step, which enables faithful encoding, reconstruction, and semantic interpolation in image translation tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/thu-ml/DiffusionBridge.

In this paper we provide a novel analytical perspective on the theoretical understanding of gradient-based learning algorithms by interpreting consensus-based optimization (CBO), a recently proposed multi-particle derivative-free optimization method, as a stochastic relaxation of gradient descent. Remarkably, we observe that through communication of the particles, CBO exhibits a stochastic gradient descent (SGD)-like behavior despite solely relying on evaluations of the objective function. The fundamental value of such link between CBO and SGD lies in the fact that CBO is provably globally convergent to global minimizers for ample classes of nonsmooth and nonconvex objective functions, hence, on the one side, offering a novel explanation for the success of stochastic relaxations of gradient descent. On the other side, contrary to the conventional wisdom for which zero-order methods ought to be inefficient or not to possess generalization abilities, our results unveil an intrinsic gradient descent nature of such heuristics. This viewpoint furthermore complements previous insights into the working principles of CBO, which describe the dynamics in the mean-field limit through a nonlinear nonlocal partial differential equation that allows to alleviate complexities of the nonconvex function landscape. Our proofs leverage a completely nonsmooth analysis, which combines a novel quantitative version of the Laplace principle (log-sum-exp trick) and the minimizing movement scheme (proximal iteration). In doing so, we furnish useful and precise insights that explain how stochastic perturbations of gradient descent overcome energy barriers and reach deep levels of nonconvex functions. Instructive numerical illustrations support the provided theoretical insights.

Bayesian optimization is an approach to optimizing objective functions that take a long time (minutes or hours) to evaluate. It is best-suited for optimization over continuous domains of less than 20 dimensions, and tolerates stochastic noise in function evaluations. It builds a surrogate for the objective and quantifies the uncertainty in that surrogate using a Bayesian machine learning technique, Gaussian process regression, and then uses an acquisition function defined from this surrogate to decide where to sample. In this tutorial, we describe how Bayesian optimization works, including Gaussian process regression and three common acquisition functions: expected improvement, entropy search, and knowledge gradient. We then discuss more advanced techniques, including running multiple function evaluations in parallel, multi-fidelity and multi-information source optimization, expensive-to-evaluate constraints, random environmental conditions, multi-task Bayesian optimization, and the inclusion of derivative information. We conclude with a discussion of Bayesian optimization software and future research directions in the field. Within our tutorial material we provide a generalization of expected improvement to noisy evaluations, beyond the noise-free setting where it is more commonly applied. This generalization is justified by a formal decision-theoretic argument, standing in contrast to previous ad hoc modifications.

Diffusion or flow-based models are powerful generative paradigms that are notoriously hard to sample as samples are defined as solutions to high-dimensional Ordinary or Stochastic Differential Equations (ODEs/SDEs) which require a large Number of Function Evaluations (NFE) to approximate well. Existing methods to alleviate the costly sampling process include model distillation and designing dedicated ODE solvers. However, distillation is costly to train and sometimes can deteriorate quality, while dedicated solvers still require relatively large NFE to produce high quality samples. In this paper we introduce "Bespoke solvers", a novel framework for constructing custom ODE solvers tailored to the ODE of a given pre-trained flow model. Our approach optimizes an order consistent and parameter-efficient solver (e.g., with 80 learnable parameters), is trained for roughly 1% of the GPU time required for training the pre-trained model, and significantly improves approximation and generation quality compared to dedicated solvers. For example, a Bespoke solver for a CIFAR10 model produces samples with Fr\'echet Inception Distance (FID) of 2.73 with 10 NFE, and gets to 1% of the Ground Truth (GT) FID (2.59) for this model with only 20 NFE. On the more challenging ImageNet-64times64, Bespoke samples at 2.2 FID with 10 NFE, and gets within 2% of GT FID (1.71) with 20 NFE.

Diffusion models suffer from slow sample generation at inference time. Therefore, developing a principled framework for fast deterministic/stochastic sampling for a broader class of diffusion models is a promising direction. We propose two complementary frameworks for accelerating sample generation in pre-trained models: Conjugate Integrators and Splitting Integrators. Conjugate integrators generalize DDIM, mapping the reverse diffusion dynamics to a more amenable space for sampling. In contrast, splitting-based integrators, commonly used in molecular dynamics, reduce the numerical simulation error by cleverly alternating between numerical updates involving the data and auxiliary variables. After extensively studying these methods empirically and theoretically, we present a hybrid method that leads to the best-reported performance for diffusion models in augmented spaces. Applied to Phase Space Langevin Diffusion [Pandey & Mandt, 2023] on CIFAR-10, our deterministic and stochastic samplers achieve FID scores of 2.11 and 2.36 in only 100 network function evaluations (NFE) as compared to 2.57 and 2.63 for the best-performing baselines, respectively. Our code and model checkpoints will be made publicly available at https://github.com/mandt-lab/PSLD.

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

Stochastic rounding (SR) is a probabilistic method used to round numbers to floating-point and fixed-point representations. In length n summation, the worst-case error of SR grows as n with high probability, unlike for standard modes, like round-to-nearest (RN), which grows as n. For this reason, the former is increasingly employed in large-scale, low-precision computations as an RN alternative. Additionally, SR alleviates stagnation, whereby relatively small summands are completely rounded off and do not contribute to the sum. We provide an update to [Croci et al., Roy. Soc. Open Sci. 9.3 (2022), pp. 1-25], a survey which discusses the development and use of SR between 1949 and 2022, citing over 100 references. Since then, there has been a surge of new research, and this update covers almost four years of further progress in applying, analysing, and implementing SR. Our main focus is limited-precision stochastic rounding, a new variant that fixes the precision of the random numbers used. We provide insights into industrial and numerical analysis activities surrounding SR, highlighting the next possible steps in making this rounding mode more widely available in hardware.

The inherent rigidity of fixed-size benchmarks makes them an inefficient tool for model evaluation. Diverse evaluation objectives, including model ranking, model selection and testing throughout development, demand varying levels of statistical power. The mismatch between fixed sample sizes and these diverse needs results in either excessive computational cost or compromised reliability - a critical concern for model evaluation. To overcome these limitations, we call for adoption of sequential testing in our field. We provide an adaptive evaluation framework, that provides a principled way to navigate the trade-off between efficiency and reliability in model evaluation. Our framework combines the established statistical paradigm of sequential testing with stopping criteria tailored to common evaluation needs such as diminishing returns detection, and minimum detectable effect size. We demonstrate its ability to adaptively manage the efficiency-reliability trade-off on the Open VLM Leaderboard, including, for example, a 80% reduction in computational cost compared to fixed-size evaluation (with a 2.5-point CI width allowance) while maintaining statistical significance.

Forecasting has become a natural benchmark for reasoning under uncertainty. Yet existing evaluations of large language models remain limited to judgmental tasks in simple formats, such as binary or multiple-choice questions. In practice, however, forecasting spans a far broader scope. Across domains such as economics, public health, and social demographics, decisions hinge on numerical estimates over continuous quantities, a capability that current benchmarks do not capture. Evaluating such estimates requires a format that makes uncertainty explicit and testable. We propose prediction intervals as a natural and rigorous interface for this purpose. They demand scale awareness, internal consistency across confidence levels, and calibration over a continuum of outcomes, making them a more suitable evaluation format than point estimates for numerical forecasting. To assess this capability, we introduce a new benchmark QuantSightBench, and evaluate frontier models under multiple settings, assessing both empirical coverage and interval sharpness. Our results show that none of the 11 evaluated frontier and open-weight models achieves the 90\% coverage target, with the top performers Gemini 3.1 Pro (79.1\%), Grok 4 (76.4\%), and GPT-5.4 (75.3\%) all falling at least 10 percentage points short. Calibration degrades sharply at extreme magnitudes, revealing systematic overconfidence across all evaluated models.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

Pass@k is widely used to report the reasoning performance of LLMs, but it often produces unstable and potentially misleading rankings, especially when the number of trials (samples) is limited and computational resources are constrained. We present a principled Bayesian evaluation framework that replaces Pass@k and average accuracy over N trials (avg@N) with posterior estimates of a model's underlying success probability and credible intervals, yielding stable rankings and a transparent decision rule for differences. Evaluation outcomes are modeled as categorical (not just 0/1) with a Dirichlet prior, giving closed-form expressions for the posterior mean and uncertainty of any weighted rubric and enabling the use of prior evidence when appropriate. Theoretically, under a uniform prior, the Bayesian posterior mean is order-equivalent to average accuracy (Pass@1), explaining its empirical robustness while adding principled uncertainty. Empirically, in simulations with known ground-truth success rates and on AIME'24/'25, HMMT'25, and BrUMO'25, the posterior-based procedure achieves faster convergence and greater rank stability than Pass@k and recent variants, enabling reliable comparisons at far smaller sample counts. The framework clarifies when observed gaps are statistically meaningful (non-overlapping credible intervals) versus noise, and it naturally extends to graded, rubric-based evaluations. Together, these results recommend replacing Pass@k for LLM evaluation and ranking with a posterior-based, compute-efficient protocol that unifies binary and non-binary evaluation while making uncertainty explicit. Source code is available at https://github.com/mohsenhariri/scorio

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

Evaluations are critical for understanding the capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Fundamentally, evaluations are experiments; but the literature on evaluations has largely ignored the literature from other sciences on experiment analysis and planning. This article shows researchers with some training in statistics how to think about and analyze data from language model evaluations. Conceptualizing evaluation questions as having been drawn from an unseen super-population, we present formulas for analyzing evaluation data, measuring differences between two models, and planning an evaluation experiment. We make a number of specific recommendations for running language model evaluations and reporting experiment results in a way that minimizes statistical noise and maximizes informativeness.

For stochastic models with intractable likelihood functions, approximate Bayesian computation offers a way of approximating the true posterior through repeated comparisons of observations with simulated model outputs in terms of a small set of summary statistics. These statistics need to retain the information that is relevant for constraining the parameters but cancel out the noise. They can thus be seen as thermodynamic state variables, for general stochastic models. For many scientific applications, we need strictly more summary statistics than model parameters to reach a satisfactory approximation of the posterior. Therefore, we propose to use the inner dimension of deep neural network based Autoencoders as summary statistics. To create an incentive for the encoder to encode all the parameter-related information but not the noise, we give the decoder access to explicit or implicit information on the noise that has been used to generate the training data. We validate the approach empirically on two types of stochastic models.

We investigate stochastic combinatorial semi-bandits, where the entire joint distribution of outcomes impacts the complexity of the problem instance (unlike in the standard bandits). Typical distributions considered depend on specific parameter values, whose prior knowledge is required in theory but quite difficult to estimate in practice; an example is the commonly assumed sub-Gaussian family. We alleviate this issue by instead considering a new general family of sub-exponential distributions, which contains bounded and Gaussian ones. We prove a new lower bound on the expected regret on this family, that is parameterized by the unknown covariance matrix of outcomes, a tighter quantity than the sub-Gaussian matrix. We then construct an algorithm that uses covariance estimates, and provide a tight asymptotic analysis of the regret. Finally, we apply and extend our results to the family of sparse outcomes, which has applications in many recommender systems.

Evaluation benchmarks are the cornerstone of measuring capabilities of large language models (LLMs), as well as driving progress in said capabilities. Originally designed to make claims about capabilities (or lack thereof) in fully pretrained models, evaluation benchmarks are now also extensively used to decide between various training choices. Despite this widespread usage, we rarely quantify the variance in our evaluation benchmarks, which dictates whether differences in performance are meaningful. Here, we define and measure a range of metrics geared towards measuring variance in evaluation benchmarks, including seed variance across initialisations, and monotonicity during training. By studying a large number of models -- both openly available and pretrained from scratch -- we provide empirical estimates for a variety of variance metrics, with considerations and recommendations for practitioners. We also evaluate the utility and tradeoffs of continuous versus discrete performance measures and explore options for better understanding and reducing this variance. We find that simple changes, such as framing choice tasks (like MMLU) as completion tasks, can often reduce variance for smaller scale (sim7B) models, while more involved methods inspired from human testing literature (such as item analysis and item response theory) struggle to meaningfully reduce variance. Overall, our work provides insights into variance in evaluation benchmarks, suggests LM-specific techniques to reduce variance, and more generally encourages practitioners to carefully factor in variance when comparing models.

Agentic systems are evaluated on benchmarks where agents interact with environments to solve tasks. Most papers report a pass@1 score computed from a single run per task, assuming this gives a reliable performance estimate. We test this assumption by collecting 60,000 agentic trajectories on SWE-Bench-Verified, spanning three models and two scaffolds. We find substantial variance: single-run pass@1 estimates vary by 2.2 to 6.0 percentage points depending on which run is selected, with standard deviations exceeding 1.5 percentage points even at temperature 0. This variance has critical implications: reported improvements of 2--3 percentage points may reflect evaluation noise rather than genuine algorithmic progress. Through token-level analysis, we show that trajectories diverge early, often within the first few percent of tokens, and that these small differences cascade into different solution strategies. To enable reliable evaluation of agentic systems, we recommend three concrete practices: (1) estimate pass@1 from multiple independent runs per task, especially when measuring small improvements, (2) use statistical power analysis to determine the number of runs needed to detect expected effect sizes, and (3) consider metrics like pass@k (optimistic bound) and pass^k (pessimistic bound) with k>1 to better characterize the full performance envelope. While these practices increase evaluation cost, they are essential for distinguishing genuine scientific progress from statistical noise.

We develop a framework for non-asymptotic analysis of deterministic samplers used for diffusion generative modeling. Several recent works have analyzed stochastic samplers using tools like Girsanov's theorem and a chain rule variant of the interpolation argument. Unfortunately, these techniques give vacuous bounds when applied to deterministic samplers. We give a new operational interpretation for deterministic sampling by showing that one step along the probability flow ODE can be expressed as two steps: 1) a restoration step that runs gradient ascent on the conditional log-likelihood at some infinitesimally previous time, and 2) a degradation step that runs the forward process using noise pointing back towards the current iterate. This perspective allows us to extend denoising diffusion implicit models to general, non-linear forward processes. We then develop the first polynomial convergence bounds for these samplers under mild conditions on the data distribution.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has recently emerged as a powerful technique for improving image and video generation in Diffusion and Flow Matching models, specifically for enhancing output quality and alignment with prompts. A critical step for applying online RL methods on Flow Matching is the introduction of stochasticity into the deterministic framework, commonly realized by Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE). Our investigation reveals a significant drawback to this approach: SDE-based sampling introduces pronounced noise artifacts in the generated images, which we found to be detrimental to the reward learning process. A rigorous theoretical analysis traces the origin of this noise to an excess of stochasticity injected during inference. To address this, we draw inspiration from Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models (DDIM) to reformulate the sampling process. Our proposed method, Coefficients-Preserving Sampling (CPS), eliminates these noise artifacts. This leads to more accurate reward modeling, ultimately enabling faster and more stable convergence for reinforcement learning-based optimizers like Flow-GRPO and Dance-GRPO. Code will be released at https://github.com/IamCreateAI/FlowCPS

LLM-as-a-judge has emerged as a cornerstone technique for evaluating large language models by leveraging LLM reasoning to score prompt-response pairs. Since LLM judgments are stochastic, practitioners commonly query each pair multiple times to estimate mean scores accurately. This raises a critical challenge: given a fixed computational budget B, how to optimally allocate queries across K prompt-response pairs to minimize estimation error? % We present a principled variance-adaptive approach leveraging multi-armed bandit theory and concentration inequalities. Our method dynamically allocates queries based on estimated score variances, concentrating resources where uncertainty is highest. Further, our algorithm is shown to achieve a worst-case score-estimation error of Oleft(frac{sum_{i=1^K σ_i^2}{B}}right), σ_i^2 being the unknown score variance for pair i in [K] with near-optimal budget allocation. % Experiments on Summarize-From-Feedback and HelpSteer2 demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms uniform allocation, reducing worst-case estimation error while maintaining identical budgets. Our work establishes a theoretical foundation for efficient LLM evaluation with practical implications for AI safety, model alignment, and automated assessment at scale.

Off-policy actor-critic methods in reinforcement learning train a critic with temporal-difference updates and use it as a learning signal for the policy (actor). This design typically achieves higher sample efficiency than purely on-policy methods. However, critic networks tend to overestimate value estimates systematically. This is often addressed by introducing a pessimistic bias based on uncertainty estimates. Current methods employ ensembling to quantify the critic's epistemic uncertainty-uncertainty due to limited data and model ambiguity-to scale pessimistic updates. In this work, we propose a new algorithm called Stochastic Actor-Critic (STAC) that incorporates temporal (one-step) aleatoric uncertainty-uncertainty arising from stochastic transitions, rewards, and policy-induced variability in Bellman targets-to scale pessimistic bias in temporal-difference updates, rather than relying on epistemic uncertainty. STAC uses a single distributional critic network to model the temporal return uncertainty, and applies dropout to both the critic and actor networks for regularization. Our results show that pessimism based on a distributional critic alone suffices to mitigate overestimation, and naturally leads to risk-averse behavior in stochastic environments. Introducing dropout further improves training stability and performance by means of regularization. With this design, STAC achieves improved computational efficiency using a single distributional critic network.

Users of music streaming, video streaming, news recommendation, and e-commerce services often engage with content in a sequential manner. Providing and evaluating good sequences of recommendations is therefore a central problem for these services. Prior reweighting-based counterfactual evaluation methods either suffer from high variance or make strong independence assumptions about rewards. We propose a new counterfactual estimator that allows for sequential interactions in the rewards with lower variance in an asymptotically unbiased manner. Our method uses graphical assumptions about the causal relationships of the slate to reweight the rewards in the logging policy in a way that approximates the expected sum of rewards under the target policy. Extensive experiments in simulation and on a live recommender system show that our approach outperforms existing methods in terms of bias and data efficiency for the sequential track recommendations problem.

Evaluation is the baton for the development of large language models. Current evaluations typically employ a single-item assessment paradigm for each atomic test objective, which struggles to discern whether a model genuinely possesses the required capabilities or merely memorizes/guesses the answers to specific questions. To this end, we propose a novel evaluation framework referred to as StructEval. Starting from an atomic test objective, StructEval deepens and broadens the evaluation by conducting a structured assessment across multiple cognitive levels and critical concepts, and therefore offers a comprehensive, robust and consistent evaluation for LLMs. Experiments on three widely-used benchmarks demonstrate that StructEval serves as a reliable tool for resisting the risk of data contamination and reducing the interference of potential biases, thereby providing more reliable and consistent conclusions regarding model capabilities. Our framework also sheds light on the design of future principled and trustworthy LLM evaluation protocols.

Evaluation has traditionally focused on ranking candidates for a specific skill. Modern generalist models, such as Large Language Models (LLMs), decidedly outpace this paradigm. Open-ended evaluation systems, where candidate models are compared on user-submitted prompts, have emerged as a popular solution. Despite their many advantages, we show that the current Elo-based rating systems can be susceptible to and even reinforce biases in data, intentional or accidental, due to their sensitivity to redundancies. To address this issue, we propose evaluation as a 3-player game, and introduce novel game-theoretic solution concepts to ensure robustness to redundancy. We show that our method leads to intuitive ratings and provide insights into the competitive landscape of LLM development.

In many real-world settings, a centralized decision-maker must repeatedly allocate finite resources to a population over multiple time steps. Individuals who receive a resource derive some stochastic utility; to characterize the population-level effects of an allocation, the expected individual utilities are then aggregated using a social welfare function (SWF). We formalize this setting and present a general confidence sequence framework for SWF-based online learning and inference, valid for any monotonic, concave, and Lipschitz-continuous SWF. Our key insight is that monotonicity alone suffices to lift confidence sequences from individual utilities to anytime-valid bounds on optimal welfare. Building on this foundation, we propose SWF-UCB, a SWF-agnostic online learning algorithm that achieves near-optimal O(n+nkT) regret (for k resources distributed among n individuals at each of T time steps). We instantiate our framework on three normatively distinct SWF families: Weighted Power Mean, Kolm, and Gini, providing bespoke oracle algorithms for each. Experiments confirm T scaling and reveal rich interactions between k and SWF parameters. This framework naturally supports inference applications such as sequential hypothesis testing, optimal stopping, and policy evaluation.

Stochastic restoration algorithms allow to explore the space of solutions that correspond to the degraded input. In this paper we reveal additional fundamental advantages of stochastic methods over deterministic ones, which further motivate their use. First, we prove that any restoration algorithm that attains perfect perceptual quality and whose outputs are consistent with the input must be a posterior sampler, and is thus required to be stochastic. Second, we illustrate that while deterministic restoration algorithms may attain high perceptual quality, this can be achieved only by filling up the space of all possible source images using an extremely sensitive mapping, which makes them highly vulnerable to adversarial attacks. Indeed, we show that enforcing deterministic models to be robust to such attacks profoundly hinders their perceptual quality, while robustifying stochastic models hardly influences their perceptual quality, and improves their output variability. These findings provide a motivation to foster progress in stochastic restoration methods, paving the way to better recovery algorithms.

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms are predominantly evaluated by comparing their relative performance on a large suite of tasks. Most published results on deep RL benchmarks compare point estimates of aggregate performance such as mean and median scores across tasks, ignoring the statistical uncertainty implied by the use of a finite number of training runs. Beginning with the Arcade Learning Environment (ALE), the shift towards computationally-demanding benchmarks has led to the practice of evaluating only a small number of runs per task, exacerbating the statistical uncertainty in point estimates. In this paper, we argue that reliable evaluation in the few run deep RL regime cannot ignore the uncertainty in results without running the risk of slowing down progress in the field. We illustrate this point using a case study on the Atari 100k benchmark, where we find substantial discrepancies between conclusions drawn from point estimates alone versus a more thorough statistical analysis. With the aim of increasing the field's confidence in reported results with a handful of runs, we advocate for reporting interval estimates of aggregate performance and propose performance profiles to account for the variability in results, as well as present more robust and efficient aggregate metrics, such as interquartile mean scores, to achieve small uncertainty in results. Using such statistical tools, we scrutinize performance evaluations of existing algorithms on other widely used RL benchmarks including the ALE, Procgen, and the DeepMind Control Suite, again revealing discrepancies in prior comparisons. Our findings call for a change in how we evaluate performance in deep RL, for which we present a more rigorous evaluation methodology, accompanied with an open-source library rliable, to prevent unreliable results from stagnating the field.

We introduce stochastic activations. This novel strategy randomly selects between several non-linear functions in the feed-forward layer of a large language model. In particular, we choose between SILU or RELU depending on a Bernoulli draw. This strategy circumvents the optimization problem associated with RELU, namely, the constant shape for negative inputs that prevents the gradient flow. We leverage this strategy in two ways: (1) We use stochastic activations during pre-training and fine-tune the model with RELU, which is used at inference time to provide sparse latent vectors. This reduces the inference FLOPs and translates into a significant speedup in the CPU. Interestingly, this leads to much better results than training from scratch with the RELU activation function. (2) We evaluate stochastic activations for generation. This strategy performs reasonably well: it is only slightly inferior to the best deterministic non-linearity, namely SILU combined with temperature scaling. This offers an alternative to existing strategies by providing a controlled way to increase the diversity of the generated text.

In this paper we argue for the fundamental importance of the value distribution: the distribution of the random return received by a reinforcement learning agent. This is in contrast to the common approach to reinforcement learning which models the expectation of this return, or value. Although there is an established body of literature studying the value distribution, thus far it has always been used for a specific purpose such as implementing risk-aware behaviour. We begin with theoretical results in both the policy evaluation and control settings, exposing a significant distributional instability in the latter. We then use the distributional perspective to design a new algorithm which applies Bellman's equation to the learning of approximate value distributions. We evaluate our algorithm using the suite of games from the Arcade Learning Environment. We obtain both state-of-the-art results and anecdotal evidence demonstrating the importance of the value distribution in approximate reinforcement learning. Finally, we combine theoretical and empirical evidence to highlight the ways in which the value distribution impacts learning in the approximate setting.

We develop a variant of the stochastic prox-linear method for minimizing the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) objective. CVaR is a risk measure focused on minimizing worst-case performance, defined as the average of the top quantile of the losses. In machine learning, such a risk measure is useful to train more robust models. Although the stochastic subgradient method (SGM) is a natural choice for minimizing the CVaR objective, we show that our stochastic prox-linear (SPL+) algorithm can better exploit the structure of the objective, while still providing a convenient closed form update. Our SPL+ method also adapts to the scaling of the loss function, which allows for easier tuning. We then specialize a general convergence theorem for SPL+ to our setting, and show that it allows for a wider selection of step sizes compared to SGM. We support this theoretical finding experimentally.

The integration of online reinforcement learning (RL) into diffusion and flow models has recently emerged as a promising approach for aligning generative models with human preferences. Stochastic sampling via Stochastic Differential Equations (SDE) is employed during the denoising process to generate diverse denoising directions for RL exploration. While existing methods effectively explore potential high-value samples, they suffer from sub-optimal preference alignment due to sparse and narrow reward signals. To address these challenges, we propose a novel Granular-GRPO (G^2RPO ) framework that achieves precise and comprehensive reward assessments of sampling directions in reinforcement learning of flow models. Specifically, a Singular Stochastic Sampling strategy is introduced to support step-wise stochastic exploration while enforcing a high correlation between the reward and the injected noise, thereby facilitating a faithful reward for each SDE perturbation. Concurrently, to eliminate the bias inherent in fixed-granularity denoising, we introduce a Multi-Granularity Advantage Integration module that aggregates advantages computed at multiple diffusion scales, producing a more comprehensive and robust evaluation of the sampling directions. Experiments conducted on various reward models, including both in-domain and out-of-domain evaluations, demonstrate that our G^2RPO significantly outperforms existing flow-based GRPO baselines,highlighting its effectiveness and robustness.

Model performance evaluation is a critical and expensive task in machine learning and computer vision. Without clear guidelines, practitioners often estimate model accuracy using a one-time completely random selection of the data. However, by employing tailored sampling and estimation strategies, one can obtain more precise estimates and reduce annotation costs. In this paper, we propose a statistical framework for model evaluation that includes stratification, sampling, and estimation components. We examine the statistical properties of each component and evaluate their efficiency (precision). One key result of our work is that stratification via k-means clustering based on accurate predictions of model performance yields efficient estimators. Our experiments on computer vision datasets show that this method consistently provides more precise accuracy estimates than the traditional simple random sampling, even with substantial efficiency gains of 10x. We also find that model-assisted estimators, which leverage predictions of model accuracy on the unlabeled portion of the dataset, are generally more efficient than the traditional estimates based solely on the labeled data.

We address the problem of optimizing a Brownian motion. We consider a (random) realization W of a Brownian motion with input space in [0,1]. Given W, our goal is to return an ε-approximation of its maximum using the smallest possible number of function evaluations, the sample complexity of the algorithm. We provide an algorithm with sample complexity of order log^2(1/ε). This improves over previous results of Al-Mharmah and Calvin (1996) and Calvin et al. (2017) which provided only polynomial rates. Our algorithm is adaptive---each query depends on previous values---and is an instance of the optimism-in-the-face-of-uncertainty principle.

Human evaluation is the gold-standard for evaluating text generation models. It is also expensive, and to fit budgetary constraints, a random subset of the test data is often chosen in practice. The randomly selected data may not accurately represent test performance, making this approach economically inefficient for model comparison. Thus, in this work, we develop a suite of selectors to get the most informative datapoints for human evaluation while taking the evaluation costs into account. We show that selectors based on variance in automated metric scores, diversity in model outputs, or Item Response Theory outperform random selection. We further develop an approach to distill these selectors to the scenario where the model outputs are not yet available. In particular, we introduce source-based estimators, which predict item usefulness for human evaluation just based on the source texts. We demonstrate the efficacy of our selectors in two common NLG tasks, machine translation and summarization, and show that up to only ~50% of the test data is needed to produce the same evaluation result as the entire data. Our implementations are published in the subset2evaluate package.

Significant work has been recently dedicated to the stochastic delayed bandit setting because of its relevance in applications. The applicability of existing algorithms is however restricted by the fact that strong assumptions are often made on the delay distributions, such as full observability, restrictive shape constraints, or uniformity over arms. In this work, we weaken them significantly and only assume that there is a bound on the tail of the delay. In particular, we cover the important case where the delay distributions vary across arms, and the case where the delays are heavy-tailed. Addressing these difficulties, we propose a simple but efficient UCB-based algorithm called the PatientBandits. We provide both problems-dependent and problems-independent bounds on the regret as well as performance lower bounds.

Mehta and Panigrahi (2012) proposed Online Matching with Stochastic Rewards, which generalizes the Online Bipartite Matching problem of Karp, Vazirani, and Vazirani (1990) by associating the edges with success probabilities. This new feature captures the pay-per-click model in online advertising. Recently, Huang and Zhang (2020) studied this problem under the online primal dual framework using the Configuration Linear Program (LP), and got the best known competitive ratios of the Stochastic Balance algorithm. Their work suggests that the more expressive Configuration LP is more suitable for this problem than the Matching LP. This paper advances the theory of Configuration LP in two directions. Our technical contribution includes a characterization of the joint matching outcome of an offline vertex and all its neighbors. This characterization may be of independent interest, and is aligned with the spirit of Configuration LP. By contrast, previous analyses of Ranking generally focus on only one neighbor. Second, we designed a Stochastic Configuration LP that captures a stochastic benchmark proposed by Goyal and Udwani (2020), who used a Path-based LP. The Stochastic Configuration LP is smaller and simpler than the Path-based LP. Moreover, using the new LP we improved the competitive ratio of Stochastic Balance from 0.596 to 0.611 when the success probabilities are infinitesimal, and to 0.613 when the success probabilities are further equal.

We study variance-dependent regret bounds for Markov decision processes (MDPs). Algorithms with variance-dependent regret guarantees can automatically exploit environments with low variance (e.g., enjoying constant regret on deterministic MDPs). The existing algorithms are either variance-independent or suboptimal. We first propose two new environment norms to characterize the fine-grained variance properties of the environment. For model-based methods, we design a variant of the MVP algorithm (Zhang et al., 2021a). We apply new analysis techniques to demonstrate that this algorithm enjoys variance-dependent bounds with respect to the norms we propose. In particular, this bound is simultaneously minimax optimal for both stochastic and deterministic MDPs, the first result of its kind. We further initiate the study on model-free algorithms with variance-dependent regret bounds by designing a reference-function-based algorithm with a novel capped-doubling reference update schedule. Lastly, we also provide lower bounds to complement our upper bounds.

The human intrinsic desire to pursue knowledge, also known as curiosity, is considered essential in the process of skill acquisition. With the aid of artificial curiosity, we could equip current techniques for control, such as Reinforcement Learning, with more natural exploration capabilities. A promising approach in this respect has consisted of using Bayesian surprise on model parameters, i.e. a metric for the difference between prior and posterior beliefs, to favour exploration. In this contribution, we propose to apply Bayesian surprise in a latent space representing the agent's current understanding of the dynamics of the system, drastically reducing the computational costs. We extensively evaluate our method by measuring the agent's performance in terms of environment exploration, for continuous tasks, and looking at the game scores achieved, for video games. Our model is computationally cheap and compares positively with current state-of-the-art methods on several problems. We also investigate the effects caused by stochasticity in the environment, which is often a failure case for curiosity-driven agents. In this regime, the results suggest that our approach is resilient to stochastic transitions.

Beam search is the default decoding strategy for many sequence generation tasks in NLP. The set of approximate K-best items returned by the algorithm is a useful summary of the distribution for many applications; however, the candidates typically exhibit high overlap and may give a highly biased estimate for expectations under our model. These problems can be addressed by instead using stochastic decoding strategies. In this work, we propose a new method for turning beam search into a stochastic process: Conditional Poisson stochastic beam search. Rather than taking the maximizing set at each iteration, we sample K candidates without replacement according to the conditional Poisson sampling design. We view this as a more natural alternative to Kool et. al. 2019's stochastic beam search (SBS). Furthermore, we show how samples generated under the CPSBS design can be used to build consistent estimators and sample diverse sets from sequence models. In our experiments, we observe CPSBS produces lower variance and more efficient estimators than SBS, even showing improvements in high entropy settings.

We marry ideas from deep neural networks and approximate Bayesian inference to derive a generalised class of deep, directed generative models, endowed with a new algorithm for scalable inference and learning. Our algorithm introduces a recognition model to represent approximate posterior distributions, and that acts as a stochastic encoder of the data. We develop stochastic back-propagation -- rules for back-propagation through stochastic variables -- and use this to develop an algorithm that allows for joint optimisation of the parameters of both the generative and recognition model. We demonstrate on several real-world data sets that the model generates realistic samples, provides accurate imputations of missing data and is a useful tool for high-dimensional data visualisation.

In any ranking system, the retrieval model outputs a single score for a document based on its belief on how relevant it is to a given search query. While retrieval models have continued to improve with the introduction of increasingly complex architectures, few works have investigated a retrieval model's belief in the score beyond the scope of a single value. We argue that capturing the model's uncertainty with respect to its own scoring of a document is a critical aspect of retrieval that allows for greater use of current models across new document distributions, collections, or even improving effectiveness for down-stream tasks. In this paper, we address this problem via an efficient Bayesian framework for retrieval models which captures the model's belief in the relevance score through a stochastic process while adding only negligible computational overhead. We evaluate this belief via a ranking based calibration metric showing that our approximate Bayesian framework significantly improves a retrieval model's ranking effectiveness through a risk aware reranking as well as its confidence calibration. Lastly, we demonstrate that this additional uncertainty information is actionable and reliable on down-stream tasks represented via cutoff prediction.

In machine learning, the notion of multi-armed bandits refers to a class of online learning problems, in which an agent is supposed to simultaneously explore and exploit a given set of choice alternatives in the course of a sequential decision process. In the standard setting, the agent learns from stochastic feedback in the form of real-valued rewards. In many applications, however, numerical reward signals are not readily available -- instead, only weaker information is provided, in particular relative preferences in the form of qualitative comparisons between pairs of alternatives. This observation has motivated the study of variants of the multi-armed bandit problem, in which more general representations are used both for the type of feedback to learn from and the target of prediction. The aim of this paper is to provide a survey of the state of the art in this field, referred to as preference-based multi-armed bandits or dueling bandits. To this end, we provide an overview of problems that have been considered in the literature as well as methods for tackling them. Our taxonomy is mainly based on the assumptions made by these methods about the data-generating process and, related to this, the properties of the preference-based feedback.

We consider a combinatorial multi-armed bandit problem for maximum value reward function under maximum value and index feedback. This is a new feedback structure that lies in between commonly studied semi-bandit and full-bandit feedback structures. We propose an algorithm and provide a regret bound for problem instances with stochastic arm outcomes according to arbitrary distributions with finite supports. The regret analysis rests on considering an extended set of arms, associated with values and probabilities of arm outcomes, and applying a smoothness condition. Our algorithm achieves a O((k/Delta)log(T)) distribution-dependent and a O(T) distribution-independent regret where k is the number of arms selected in each round, Delta is a distribution-dependent reward gap and T is the horizon time. Perhaps surprisingly, the regret bound is comparable to previously-known bound under more informative semi-bandit feedback. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm through experimental results.

We consider stochastic sequential learning problems where the learner can observe the average reward of several actions. Such a setting is interesting in many applications involving monitoring and surveillance, where the set of the actions to observe represent some (geographical) area. The importance of this setting is that in these applications, it is actually cheaper to observe average reward of a group of actions rather than the reward of a single action. We show that when the reward is smooth over a given graph representing the neighboring actions, we can maximize the cumulative reward of learning while minimizing the sensing cost. In this paper we propose CheapUCB, an algorithm that matches the regret guarantees of the known algorithms for this setting and at the same time guarantees a linear cost again over them. As a by-product of our analysis, we establish a Ω(dT) lower bound on the cumulative regret of spectral bandits for a class of graphs with effective dimension d.

As the use of text-to-image generative models increases, so does the adoption of automatic benchmarking methods used in their evaluation. However, while metrics and datasets abound, there are few unified benchmarking libraries that provide a framework for performing evaluations across many datasets and metrics. Furthermore, the rapid introduction of increasingly robust benchmarking methods requires that evaluation libraries remain flexible to new datasets and metrics. Finally, there remains a gap in synthesizing evaluations in order to deliver actionable takeaways about model performance. To enable unified, flexible, and actionable evaluations, we introduce EvalGIM (pronounced ''EvalGym''), a library for evaluating generative image models. EvalGIM contains broad support for datasets and metrics used to measure quality, diversity, and consistency of text-to-image generative models. In addition, EvalGIM is designed with flexibility for user customization as a top priority and contains a structure that allows plug-and-play additions of new datasets and metrics. To enable actionable evaluation insights, we introduce ''Evaluation Exercises'' that highlight takeaways for specific evaluation questions. The Evaluation Exercises contain easy-to-use and reproducible implementations of two state-of-the-art evaluation methods of text-to-image generative models: consistency-diversity-realism Pareto Fronts and disaggregated measurements of performance disparities across groups. EvalGIM also contains Evaluation Exercises that introduce two new analysis methods for text-to-image generative models: robustness analyses of model rankings and balanced evaluations across different prompt styles. We encourage text-to-image model exploration with EvalGIM and invite contributions at https://github.com/facebookresearch/EvalGIM/.

The rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs) demands robust, unbiased, and scalable evaluation methods. However, human annotations are costly to scale, model-based evaluations are susceptible to stylistic biases, and target-answer-based benchmarks are vulnerable to data contamination and cheating. To address these limitations, we propose StructTest, a novel benchmark that evaluates LLMs on their ability to follow compositional instructions and generate structured outputs, providing an unbiased, cost-effective, and difficult-to-cheat evaluation framework. Assessments are conducted deterministically using a rule-based evaluator, which can be easily extended to new tasks and datasets. By testing structured outputs across diverse domains including Summarization, Code, HTML, and Math, and evaluating 17 popular LLMs, we demonstrate that StructTest remains challenging even for top-performing models like Deepseek-V3/R1 and GPT-4o, establishing it as a robust proxy for measuring reasoning capabilities. We believe StructTest offers a critical and complementary approach to achieving objective and comprehensive model evaluation.

We study one-sided and α-correct sequential hypothesis testing for data generated by an ergodic, finite-state Markov chain. The null hypothesis is that the unknown transition matrix belongs to a prescribed set P of stochastic matrices, and the alternative corresponds to a disjoint set Q. We establish a non-asymptotic instance-dependent lower bound on the expected stopping time of any valid sequential test under the alternative, which is asymptotically tight. Our novel analysis improves the existing lower bounds, which are either asymptotic or provably sub-optimal in this setting. Our lower bound incorporates both the stationary distribution and the transition structure induced by the unknown Markov chain. We further propose an optimal test whose expected stopping time matches this lower bound asymptotically as αto 0. We illustrate the usefulness of our framework through applications to sequential detection of model misspecification in Markov Chain Monte Carlo and to testing structural properties, such as the linearity of transition dynamics, in Markov decision processes. Our findings yield a sharp and general characterization of optimal sequential testing procedures under Markovian dependence.

We propose an abstract framework to establish the convergence of the iterates of stochastic versions of a broad range of monotone operator splitting methods in Hilbert spaces. This framework allows for the introduction of stochasticity at several levels: approximation of operators, selection of coordinates and operators in block-iterative implementations, and relaxation parameters. The proposed analysis involves a reduced inclusion model with two operators. At each iteration, stochastic approximations to points in the graphs of these two operators are used to form the update. The results are applied to derive the almost sure and L^2 convergence of stochastic versions of the proximal point algorithm, as well as of randomized block-iterative projective splitting methods for solving systems of coupled inclusions involving a mix of set-valued, cocoercive, and Lipschitzian monotone operators combined via various monotonicity-preserving operations.

Recent advancements in visual generative models have enabled high-quality image and video generation, opening diverse applications. However, evaluating these models often demands sampling hundreds or thousands of images or videos, making the process computationally expensive, especially for diffusion-based models with inherently slow sampling. Moreover, existing evaluation methods rely on rigid pipelines that overlook specific user needs and provide numerical results without clear explanations. In contrast, humans can quickly form impressions of a model's capabilities by observing only a few samples. To mimic this, we propose the Evaluation Agent framework, which employs human-like strategies for efficient, dynamic, multi-round evaluations using only a few samples per round, while offering detailed, user-tailored analyses. It offers four key advantages: 1) efficiency, 2) promptable evaluation tailored to diverse user needs, 3) explainability beyond single numerical scores, and 4) scalability across various models and tools. Experiments show that Evaluation Agent reduces evaluation time to 10% of traditional methods while delivering comparable results. The Evaluation Agent framework is fully open-sourced to advance research in visual generative models and their efficient evaluation.

Progress in machine learning is measured by careful evaluation on problems of outstanding common interest. However, the proliferation of benchmark suites and environments, adversarial attacks, and other complications has diluted the basic evaluation model by overwhelming researchers with choices. Deliberate or accidental cherry picking is increasingly likely, and designing well-balanced evaluation suites requires increasing effort. In this paper we take a step back and propose Nash averaging. The approach builds on a detailed analysis of the algebraic structure of evaluation in two basic scenarios: agent-vs-agent and agent-vs-task. The key strength of Nash averaging is that it automatically adapts to redundancies in evaluation data, so that results are not biased by the incorporation of easy tasks or weak agents. Nash averaging thus encourages maximally inclusive evaluation -- since there is no harm (computational cost aside) from including all available tasks and agents.